Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers
The World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple str...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | International Journal of Differential Equations |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5487147 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832547722700259328 |
|---|---|
| author | Ghassane Benrhmach Khalil Namir Jamal Bouyaghroumni |
| author_facet | Ghassane Benrhmach Khalil Namir Jamal Bouyaghroumni |
| author_sort | Ghassane Benrhmach |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple strategies like testing, contact tracing, and social distancing. Predictive mathematical models for epidemics are fundamental to understand the development of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Some hosts may carry SARS‐CoV‐2 and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. We propose applying a model (SELIAHRD) taking in consideration the number of asymptomatic infected people. The SELIAHRD model consists of eight stages: Susceptible, Exposed, Latent, Symptomatic Infected, Asymptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Dead. The asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. The simulation of possible scenarios of the implementation of social distancing shows that if we rigorously follow the social distancing rule then the healthcare system will not be overloaded. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e896132dcbc440bbb8631557adc2376 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9643 1687-9651 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Differential Equations |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e896132dcbc440bbb8631557adc23762025-02-03T06:43:42ZengWileyInternational Journal of Differential Equations1687-96431687-96512020-01-01202010.1155/2020/54871475487147Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic CarriersGhassane Benrhmach0Khalil Namir1Jamal Bouyaghroumni2Laboratory of Analysis, Modelling and Simulation (LAMS), Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University, P.O. Box 7955, Sidi Othman, Casablanca, MoroccoLaboratory of Information Technology and Modelling, Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University, P.O. Box 7955, Sidi Othman, Casablanca, MoroccoLaboratory of Analysis, Modelling and Simulation (LAMS), Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University, P.O. Box 7955, Sidi Othman, Casablanca, MoroccoThe World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple strategies like testing, contact tracing, and social distancing. Predictive mathematical models for epidemics are fundamental to understand the development of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Some hosts may carry SARS‐CoV‐2 and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. We propose applying a model (SELIAHRD) taking in consideration the number of asymptomatic infected people. The SELIAHRD model consists of eight stages: Susceptible, Exposed, Latent, Symptomatic Infected, Asymptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Dead. The asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. The simulation of possible scenarios of the implementation of social distancing shows that if we rigorously follow the social distancing rule then the healthcare system will not be overloaded.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5487147 |
| spellingShingle | Ghassane Benrhmach Khalil Namir Jamal Bouyaghroumni Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers International Journal of Differential Equations |
| title | Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers |
| title_full | Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers |
| title_fullStr | Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers |
| title_short | Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers |
| title_sort | modelling and simulating the novel coronavirus with implications of asymptomatic carriers |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5487147 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ghassanebenrhmach modellingandsimulatingthenovelcoronaviruswithimplicationsofasymptomaticcarriers AT khalilnamir modellingandsimulatingthenovelcoronaviruswithimplicationsofasymptomaticcarriers AT jamalbouyaghroumni modellingandsimulatingthenovelcoronaviruswithimplicationsofasymptomaticcarriers |