Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China
Global warming significantly impacts wheat production, altering growing degree days (GDD), a key indicator of heat accumulation essential for crop growth. However, understanding the specific spatiotemporal patterns of GDD and its influence on wheat yields remains limited. This study used 40 years of...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24015152 |
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| author | Ziyang Liu Davide Cammarano Xiaojun Liu Yongchao Tian Yan Zhu Weixing Cao Qiang Cao |
| author_facet | Ziyang Liu Davide Cammarano Xiaojun Liu Yongchao Tian Yan Zhu Weixing Cao Qiang Cao |
| author_sort | Ziyang Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global warming significantly impacts wheat production, altering growing degree days (GDD), a key indicator of heat accumulation essential for crop growth. However, understanding the specific spatiotemporal patterns of GDD and its influence on wheat yields remains limited. This study used 40 years of data from experimental stations in China’s main winter wheat-producing areas to explore the spatiotemporal changes in GDD in the context of climate change and a linear mixed-effects regression model to elucidate the relationship between accumulated GDD at different growth stages and wheat yield. The study found that the accumulated GDD in wheat sowing-to-jointing stage and the accumulated GDD in jointing-to-flowering and flowering-to-maturity stages showed an opposite trend in latitudinal distribution. Over time, the total GDD accumulation increased by an average of 345.23 ℃·d, and the GDD accumulation in the three key growth stages increased by an average of 273.26 ℃·d, 27.21 ℃·d, and 44.77 ℃·d. The accumulated GDD for winter wheat during the sowing-to-jointing stage and flowering-to-maturity stage showed significant increases over 40 years, the GDD during the jointing-to-flowering stage remained relatively stable. The number of days in the growth period during the sowing-to-jointing stage and jointing-to-flowering stage decreased significantly, the number of days during the flowering-to-maturity stage increased significantly. In the northern region, the increase in accumulated GDD in the jointing-to-flowering, and flowering-to-maturity stages was beneficial to the increase in yield. In all regions, the increase in accumulated GDD in the sowing-to-jointing stage causes yield losses, and the losses in the southern region are greater than those in the northern region. For different regions, we have proposed management and breeding plans to make winter wheat better adapted to future changes in GDD. This study provides crucial insights into current challenges and offers a foundation for future research on yield forecasting under varying climate scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9d2451402d284833a0170b77d05b44fa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-9d2451402d284833a0170b77d05b44fa2025-01-31T05:10:43ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-01-01170113058Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of ChinaZiyang Liu0Davide Cammarano1Xiaojun Liu2Yongchao Tian3Yan Zhu4Weixing Cao5Qiang Cao6National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaDepartment of Agroecology, iClimate, CBIO, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, DenmarkNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, MOE Engineering and Research Center for Smart Agriculture, MARA Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Collaborative Innovation Centre for Modern Crop Production Co-sponsored by Province and Ministry, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China; Corresponding author.Global warming significantly impacts wheat production, altering growing degree days (GDD), a key indicator of heat accumulation essential for crop growth. However, understanding the specific spatiotemporal patterns of GDD and its influence on wheat yields remains limited. This study used 40 years of data from experimental stations in China’s main winter wheat-producing areas to explore the spatiotemporal changes in GDD in the context of climate change and a linear mixed-effects regression model to elucidate the relationship between accumulated GDD at different growth stages and wheat yield. The study found that the accumulated GDD in wheat sowing-to-jointing stage and the accumulated GDD in jointing-to-flowering and flowering-to-maturity stages showed an opposite trend in latitudinal distribution. Over time, the total GDD accumulation increased by an average of 345.23 ℃·d, and the GDD accumulation in the three key growth stages increased by an average of 273.26 ℃·d, 27.21 ℃·d, and 44.77 ℃·d. The accumulated GDD for winter wheat during the sowing-to-jointing stage and flowering-to-maturity stage showed significant increases over 40 years, the GDD during the jointing-to-flowering stage remained relatively stable. The number of days in the growth period during the sowing-to-jointing stage and jointing-to-flowering stage decreased significantly, the number of days during the flowering-to-maturity stage increased significantly. In the northern region, the increase in accumulated GDD in the jointing-to-flowering, and flowering-to-maturity stages was beneficial to the increase in yield. In all regions, the increase in accumulated GDD in the sowing-to-jointing stage causes yield losses, and the losses in the southern region are greater than those in the northern region. For different regions, we have proposed management and breeding plans to make winter wheat better adapted to future changes in GDD. This study provides crucial insights into current challenges and offers a foundation for future research on yield forecasting under varying climate scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24015152Winter wheatClimate changeGrowing degree days trendsYield responseManagement practices |
| spellingShingle | Ziyang Liu Davide Cammarano Xiaojun Liu Yongchao Tian Yan Zhu Weixing Cao Qiang Cao Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China Ecological Indicators Winter wheat Climate change Growing degree days trends Yield response Management practices |
| title | Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China |
| title_full | Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China |
| title_fullStr | Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China |
| title_short | Winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days: Long-term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of China |
| title_sort | winter wheat yield responses to growing degree days long term trends and adaptability in major producing areas of china |
| topic | Winter wheat Climate change Growing degree days trends Yield response Management practices |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24015152 |
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