Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context

Summary: Background: Climate factors greatly affect cardiovascular health, with stroke ranking among serious global concerns. However, the impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on stroke risk remains underexplored. Given Taiwan's aging population and the intensifying effects of climate chan...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Miku Kono, Wei-Te Wu, Chuan-Pin Lee, Yu-Yin Chang, Yao-Hsu Yang, Ching-Chun Lin, Pau-Chung Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000835
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850216555225284608
author Miku Kono
Wei-Te Wu
Chuan-Pin Lee
Yu-Yin Chang
Yao-Hsu Yang
Ching-Chun Lin
Pau-Chung Chen
author_facet Miku Kono
Wei-Te Wu
Chuan-Pin Lee
Yu-Yin Chang
Yao-Hsu Yang
Ching-Chun Lin
Pau-Chung Chen
author_sort Miku Kono
collection DOAJ
description Summary: Background: Climate factors greatly affect cardiovascular health, with stroke ranking among serious global concerns. However, the impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on stroke risk remains underexplored. Given Taiwan's aging population and the intensifying effects of climate change, understanding influence of ambient temperatures on stroke risk is crucial for public health protection. This study aimed to explore the link between ambient temperature, sudden day-to-day temperature changes, and stroke onset in Taiwan, taking air pollutants into consideration. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020 using Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) within conditional logistic regression to examine lagged associations between temperature parameters and stroke risk. We analyzed associations separately for total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke to identify potential differences in risk patterns, using odds ratios (ORs) relative to the temperature associated with the lowest stroke risk. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) identified the study population, including 1,100,074 first-time stroke emergency events and self-matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke onset dates as controls. The primary exposure assessments included daily temperatures (mean, maximum, and minimum) and temperature fluctuations (diurnal temperature range (DTR), sudden day-to-day temperature increases (TDI), and sudden day-to-day temperature decrease (TDD)), adjusted for air pollutants (PM2.5, O3, SO2, and NO2), and rainfall. Lag periods up to 13 days prior to the corresponding event or control days were used to examine the lag effect of stroke risk. Findings: Through DLNM exposure-lag-response effect analysis after adjustment for PM2.5, O3, SO2, NO2, and rainfall, the study revealed that when TDI exceeded 6 °C, the risk of ischemic stroke more than doubled compared to the lowest risk temperature (OR: 2.173, 95% CI: 1.887, 2.501). The risk continued to rise until 9 °C, with a second peak observed when TDI exceeded 16 °C (OR: 2.096, 95% CI: 1.733, 2.535). Conversely, TDD exceeding 14 °C was linked to heightened hemorrhagic stroke risk (OR: 2.187, 95% CI: 2.055, 2.326). Additionally, daily maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C was associated with an increased stroke risk, primarily affecting ischemic stroke, while daily minimum temperature below 16 °C was strongly associated with a doubled risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Interpretation: Our findings indicate that sudden day-to-day temperature increases and decreases are significant predictors of stroke onset. These results emphasize a noteworthy relationship between temperature and stroke risk over consecutive days, supporting interventions aimed at reducing stroke incidence. Funding: This research was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Executive Yuan, Taiwan, grant No. NSTC-111-2119-M-865-002.
format Article
id doaj-art-9d01cbe33bfc45369e0e939131fa8127
institution OA Journals
issn 2666-6065
language English
publishDate 2025-04-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific
spelling doaj-art-9d01cbe33bfc45369e0e939131fa81272025-08-20T02:08:15ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific2666-60652025-04-015710154610.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101546Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in contextMiku Kono0Wei-Te Wu1Chuan-Pin Lee2Yu-Yin Chang3Yao-Hsu Yang4Ching-Chun Lin5Pau-Chung Chen6National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, TaiwanNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Yang-Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan; Corresponding author. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, No. 35, Keyan Rd., Zhunan Township, Miaoli County, 350401, Taiwan.Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan; Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan; School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, TaiwanNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, TaiwanHealth Information and Epidemiology Laboratory, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan; Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan; School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, TaiwanInstitute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TaiwanNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli County, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Public Health, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, TaiwanSummary: Background: Climate factors greatly affect cardiovascular health, with stroke ranking among serious global concerns. However, the impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on stroke risk remains underexplored. Given Taiwan's aging population and the intensifying effects of climate change, understanding influence of ambient temperatures on stroke risk is crucial for public health protection. This study aimed to explore the link between ambient temperature, sudden day-to-day temperature changes, and stroke onset in Taiwan, taking air pollutants into consideration. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020 using Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) within conditional logistic regression to examine lagged associations between temperature parameters and stroke risk. We analyzed associations separately for total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke to identify potential differences in risk patterns, using odds ratios (ORs) relative to the temperature associated with the lowest stroke risk. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) identified the study population, including 1,100,074 first-time stroke emergency events and self-matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke onset dates as controls. The primary exposure assessments included daily temperatures (mean, maximum, and minimum) and temperature fluctuations (diurnal temperature range (DTR), sudden day-to-day temperature increases (TDI), and sudden day-to-day temperature decrease (TDD)), adjusted for air pollutants (PM2.5, O3, SO2, and NO2), and rainfall. Lag periods up to 13 days prior to the corresponding event or control days were used to examine the lag effect of stroke risk. Findings: Through DLNM exposure-lag-response effect analysis after adjustment for PM2.5, O3, SO2, NO2, and rainfall, the study revealed that when TDI exceeded 6 °C, the risk of ischemic stroke more than doubled compared to the lowest risk temperature (OR: 2.173, 95% CI: 1.887, 2.501). The risk continued to rise until 9 °C, with a second peak observed when TDI exceeded 16 °C (OR: 2.096, 95% CI: 1.733, 2.535). Conversely, TDD exceeding 14 °C was linked to heightened hemorrhagic stroke risk (OR: 2.187, 95% CI: 2.055, 2.326). Additionally, daily maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C was associated with an increased stroke risk, primarily affecting ischemic stroke, while daily minimum temperature below 16 °C was strongly associated with a doubled risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Interpretation: Our findings indicate that sudden day-to-day temperature increases and decreases are significant predictors of stroke onset. These results emphasize a noteworthy relationship between temperature and stroke risk over consecutive days, supporting interventions aimed at reducing stroke incidence. Funding: This research was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Executive Yuan, Taiwan, grant No. NSTC-111-2119-M-865-002.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000835Climate changeDay-to-day temperature changeStrokeHemorrhagic strokeIschemic strokeCase-crossover study
spellingShingle Miku Kono
Wei-Te Wu
Chuan-Pin Lee
Yu-Yin Chang
Yao-Hsu Yang
Ching-Chun Lin
Pau-Chung Chen
Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific
Climate change
Day-to-day temperature change
Stroke
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Case-crossover study
title Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
title_full Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
title_fullStr Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
title_full_unstemmed Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
title_short Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020Research in context
title_sort impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk a nationwide case crossover study from 2001 to 2020research in context
topic Climate change
Day-to-day temperature change
Stroke
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Case-crossover study
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000835
work_keys_str_mv AT mikukono impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT weitewu impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT chuanpinlee impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT yuyinchang impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT yaohsuyang impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT chingchunlin impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext
AT pauchungchen impactofrapidtemperaturefluctuationsonacutestrokeriskanationwidecasecrossoverstudyfrom2001to2020researchincontext