Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions
The Brazilian semi-arid Northeast plays a critical role in regional hydrology, where rainfall is marked by pronounced temporal variability and short duration, presenting significant challenges for understanding and managing hydrological and erosive processes. This study aims to evaluate the performa...
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2025-07-01
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| author | José Bandeira Brasil Ana Célia Maia Meireles Carlos Wagner Oliveira Sirleide Maria de Menezes Francisco Dirceu Duarte Arraes Maria Simas Guerreiro |
| author_facet | José Bandeira Brasil Ana Célia Maia Meireles Carlos Wagner Oliveira Sirleide Maria de Menezes Francisco Dirceu Duarte Arraes Maria Simas Guerreiro |
| author_sort | José Bandeira Brasil |
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| description | The Brazilian semi-arid Northeast plays a critical role in regional hydrology, where rainfall is marked by pronounced temporal variability and short duration, presenting significant challenges for understanding and managing hydrological and erosive processes. This study aims to evaluate the performance of empirical models for estimating rainfall kinetic energy (KE) and erosivity index (EI<sub>30</sub>) in this region, for all events and erosive events, using high-resolution rainfall data collected at the Federal University of Cariri (UFCA), Ceará. A total of 283 natural rainfall events were analyzed, with KE and EI<sub>30</sub> values calculated using multiple models: Wischmeier and Smith, USDA, Van Dijk, a temporal variation-based model (KE_VT), and a regional model developed for Brazil’s semi-arid zone, which served as the reference. The results show a predominance of small rainfall events (<5.2 mm), though maximum EI<sub>30</sub> values exceeded 1300 MJ ha<sup>−1</sup> mm h<sup>−1</sup>, highlighting the potential for extreme erosive events. Comparative analysis revealed that all international models significantly underestimated KE and EI<sub>30</sub> values compared to the regional reference, with the KE_VT model showing the closest approximation (13% underestimation), for all events and erosive events. Statistical assessments using the Wilcoxon test, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and Willmott concordance index confirmed the superior performance of the KE_VT, for all events and erosive events. These findings underscore the importance of considering intra-event rainfall variability and regional calibration when modeling erosivity in semi-arid climates, contributing to more effective soil conservation and hydrological planning. |
| format | Article |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj-art-9c7bafbfbef440a68c8e029ee92d88e42025-08-20T02:45:46ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382025-07-0112718110.3390/hydrology12070181Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid RegionsJosé Bandeira Brasil0Ana Célia Maia Meireles1Carlos Wagner Oliveira2Sirleide Maria de Menezes3Francisco Dirceu Duarte Arraes4Maria Simas Guerreiro5Postgraduate Program in Sustainable Regional Development—PRODER, Federal University of Cariri, Juazeiro do Norte 63048-080, BrazilPostgraduate Program in Sustainable Regional Development—PRODER, Federal University of Cariri, Juazeiro do Norte 63048-080, BrazilPostgraduate Program in Sustainable Regional Development—PRODER, Federal University of Cariri, Juazeiro do Norte 63048-080, BrazilPostgraduate Program in Sustainable Regional Development—PRODER, Federal University of Cariri, Juazeiro do Norte 63048-080, BrazilFederal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Sertão Pernambucano (IFSertãoPE)-Campus Salgueiro, Salgueiro 56000-000, BrazilRISE-Health, Faculty of Science and Technology, Fernando Pessoa University, Praça 9 de Abril 349, 4249-004 Porto, PortugalThe Brazilian semi-arid Northeast plays a critical role in regional hydrology, where rainfall is marked by pronounced temporal variability and short duration, presenting significant challenges for understanding and managing hydrological and erosive processes. This study aims to evaluate the performance of empirical models for estimating rainfall kinetic energy (KE) and erosivity index (EI<sub>30</sub>) in this region, for all events and erosive events, using high-resolution rainfall data collected at the Federal University of Cariri (UFCA), Ceará. A total of 283 natural rainfall events were analyzed, with KE and EI<sub>30</sub> values calculated using multiple models: Wischmeier and Smith, USDA, Van Dijk, a temporal variation-based model (KE_VT), and a regional model developed for Brazil’s semi-arid zone, which served as the reference. The results show a predominance of small rainfall events (<5.2 mm), though maximum EI<sub>30</sub> values exceeded 1300 MJ ha<sup>−1</sup> mm h<sup>−1</sup>, highlighting the potential for extreme erosive events. Comparative analysis revealed that all international models significantly underestimated KE and EI<sub>30</sub> values compared to the regional reference, with the KE_VT model showing the closest approximation (13% underestimation), for all events and erosive events. Statistical assessments using the Wilcoxon test, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and Willmott concordance index confirmed the superior performance of the KE_VT, for all events and erosive events. These findings underscore the importance of considering intra-event rainfall variability and regional calibration when modeling erosivity in semi-arid climates, contributing to more effective soil conservation and hydrological planning.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/7/181USLEerosivity indexsoil erosionWischmeier and Smithrainfall intensity |
| spellingShingle | José Bandeira Brasil Ana Célia Maia Meireles Carlos Wagner Oliveira Sirleide Maria de Menezes Francisco Dirceu Duarte Arraes Maria Simas Guerreiro Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions Hydrology USLE erosivity index soil erosion Wischmeier and Smith rainfall intensity |
| title | Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions |
| title_full | Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions |
| title_short | Uncertainty in Kinetic Energy Models for Rainfall Erosivity Estimation in Semi-Arid Regions |
| title_sort | uncertainty in kinetic energy models for rainfall erosivity estimation in semi arid regions |
| topic | USLE erosivity index soil erosion Wischmeier and Smith rainfall intensity |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/7/181 |
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