Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model

Variations in time series data that occur due to the effects of calendar factors such as holidays, seasons, or differences in the number of days in a month are referred to as calendar variations. Time series problems are not always linear or nonlinear. Instead, they sometimes contain both (linear...

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Main Authors: Vebryana Wahyuningsih, Putriaji Hendikawati
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Prince of Songkla University 2024-08-01
Series:Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST)
Subjects:
Online Access:https://sjst.psu.ac.th/journal/46-4/8.pdf
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author Vebryana Wahyuningsih
Putriaji Hendikawati
author_facet Vebryana Wahyuningsih
Putriaji Hendikawati
author_sort Vebryana Wahyuningsih
collection DOAJ
description Variations in time series data that occur due to the effects of calendar factors such as holidays, seasons, or differences in the number of days in a month are referred to as calendar variations. Time series problems are not always linear or nonlinear. Instead, they sometimes contain both (linear and nonlinear) at once hence hybrid models can be used to model time series problems. Research was conducted on food prices in Central Java that are affected by calendar variations, namely beef and chicken egg price data. The performance of these methods is compared using RMSE and MAPE accuracy measures. The hybrid ARIMAX-NN and Reg-ARIMA methods produce the smallest RMSE and MAPE values compared to other methods, respectively.
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publishDate 2024-08-01
publisher Prince of Songkla University
record_format Article
series Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST)
spelling doaj-art-9c6d93a347324b68b934d0fb786144c82025-08-20T03:12:12ZengPrince of Songkla UniversitySongklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST)0125-33952024-08-01464377385Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation modelVebryana Wahyuningsih0Putriaji Hendikawati1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Semarang State University, Semarang, 50229 IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Semarang State University, Semarang, 50229 IndonesiaVariations in time series data that occur due to the effects of calendar factors such as holidays, seasons, or differences in the number of days in a month are referred to as calendar variations. Time series problems are not always linear or nonlinear. Instead, they sometimes contain both (linear and nonlinear) at once hence hybrid models can be used to model time series problems. Research was conducted on food prices in Central Java that are affected by calendar variations, namely beef and chicken egg price data. The performance of these methods is compared using RMSE and MAPE accuracy measures. The hybrid ARIMAX-NN and Reg-ARIMA methods produce the smallest RMSE and MAPE values compared to other methods, respectively. https://sjst.psu.ac.th/journal/46-4/8.pdftime series datacalendar variationhybrid methodfoodstuffs
spellingShingle Vebryana Wahyuningsih
Putriaji Hendikawati
Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology (SJST)
time series data
calendar variation
hybrid method
foodstuffs
title Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
title_full Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
title_fullStr Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
title_short Forecasting food prices in Central Java with the hybrid ARIMAX calendar variation model
title_sort forecasting food prices in central java with the hybrid arimax calendar variation model
topic time series data
calendar variation
hybrid method
foodstuffs
url https://sjst.psu.ac.th/journal/46-4/8.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT vebryanawahyuningsih forecastingfoodpricesincentraljavawiththehybridarimaxcalendarvariationmodel
AT putriajihendikawati forecastingfoodpricesincentraljavawiththehybridarimaxcalendarvariationmodel