The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period
Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneous predictability and homogeneous predictability for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Previous studies showed that a larger heterogeneous predictability than homogeneous predictability, referred as the signal‐to‐nois...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097965 |
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| author | Yishuai Jin |
| author_facet | Yishuai Jin |
| author_sort | Yishuai Jin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneous predictability and homogeneous predictability for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Previous studies showed that a larger heterogeneous predictability than homogeneous predictability, referred as the signal‐to‐noise paradox, is caused by a higher persistence in the observations than in the model. By using the recharge oscillator model, it is found analytically and numerically that both ENSO growth rate and period contribute to this paradox. A larger ENSO growth rate in the observation can lead to a higher persistence and heterogeneous predictability. However, a larger ENSO growth rate associated with a shortened ENSO period can also lead to this paradox although the persistence of the observation is lower than forecast model. Finally, we apply it to explain the paradox after 1960 is caused by a larger ENSO growth rate and a shortened ENSO period. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9bea9f1b2d6645daada2c37b32d27f3a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-9bea9f1b2d6645daada2c37b32d27f3a2025-01-22T14:38:15ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072022-06-014912n/an/a10.1029/2022GL097965The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and PeriodYishuai Jin0Physical Oceanography Laboratory Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) Ocean University of China Qingdao ChinaAbstract This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneous predictability and homogeneous predictability for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Previous studies showed that a larger heterogeneous predictability than homogeneous predictability, referred as the signal‐to‐noise paradox, is caused by a higher persistence in the observations than in the model. By using the recharge oscillator model, it is found analytically and numerically that both ENSO growth rate and period contribute to this paradox. A larger ENSO growth rate in the observation can lead to a higher persistence and heterogeneous predictability. However, a larger ENSO growth rate associated with a shortened ENSO period can also lead to this paradox although the persistence of the observation is lower than forecast model. Finally, we apply it to explain the paradox after 1960 is caused by a larger ENSO growth rate and a shortened ENSO period.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097965persistence‐skill rulesignal‐to‐noise paradoxENSO growth rateENSO period |
| spellingShingle | Yishuai Jin The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period Geophysical Research Letters persistence‐skill rule signal‐to‐noise paradox ENSO growth rate ENSO period |
| title | The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period |
| title_full | The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period |
| title_fullStr | The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period |
| title_short | The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period |
| title_sort | signal to noise paradox in enso prediction role of enso growth rate and period |
| topic | persistence‐skill rule signal‐to‐noise paradox ENSO growth rate ENSO period |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097965 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yishuaijin thesignaltonoiseparadoxinensopredictionroleofensogrowthrateandperiod AT yishuaijin signaltonoiseparadoxinensopredictionroleofensogrowthrateandperiod |