Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning
To obtain the sustainability of social life and to increase resistance to disaster that cause loss of life and properties; it is possible to raise awareness in the community about disaster preparedness and engross to take all the components. Disaster planning is an approach that targets the correct...
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| Language: | English |
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Artvin Coruh University
2015-08-01
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| Series: | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/52691 |
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| author | Yasin Fahjan Ferhat Pakdamar Yaşasın Eryılmaz Fatma Kara |
| author_facet | Yasin Fahjan Ferhat Pakdamar Yaşasın Eryılmaz Fatma Kara |
| author_sort | Yasin Fahjan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To obtain the sustainability of social life and to increase resistance to disaster that cause loss of life and properties; it is possible to raise awareness in the community about disaster preparedness and engross to take all the components. Disaster planning is an approach that targets the correct use of resources to decrease negative impacts in the community after the disaster. In Turkey, earthquake losses have an important role in disaster planning. There are two basic approaches for earthquake loss estimation used in disaster planning namely deterministic and probabilistic. Uncertainties of the seismic risk assessment parameters can be generated from ground motion computations, structural inventories and risk methodologies. In this study, uncertainties in the ground motion estimations are investigated. Gebze district that located close to major fault lines at Marmara region, and had significant damage during Kocaeli earthquake (1990), is selected as a study case for the risk assessment scenarios. The uncertainties parameters in ground motion computation that have major effect on the risk assessment are considered as earthquake source, earthquake magnitude and soil parameters. As a result, building damage ratios, loss of life and the need for shelter are computed. The soil amplification effects on the seismic intensity level and damage ratios are emphasized. The earthquake hazard estimation and risk assessment computation were performed utilizing geographic information system based software AFAD-RED. The software combines the scenario based seismic hazard procedure with the existing building inventories and soil data for the risk estimations. As a result, it is concluded that, uncertainties in ground motion computations have important effect on the seismic risk assessment and should be considered in disaster planning process. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9a79803535dd454ba5f7e9d1ab08478d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2528-9640 2528-9640 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-08-01 |
| publisher | Artvin Coruh University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-9a79803535dd454ba5f7e9d1ab08478d2025-02-02T16:14:17ZengArtvin Coruh UniversityDoğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi2528-96402528-96402015-08-0111-2213910.21324/dacd.61620Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster PlanningYasin Fahjan0Ferhat Pakdamar1Yaşasın Eryılmaz 2Fatma Kara 3Gebze Teknik Üniversitesi, Deprem ve Yapı Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, 41400, Gebze, Kocaeli.Gebze Teknik Üniversitesi, Deprem ve Yapı Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, 41400, Gebze, Kocaeli.Gebze Teknik Üniversitesi, Deprem ve Yapı Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, 41400, Gebze, Kocaeli.Gebze Teknik Üniversitesi, Deprem ve Yapı Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı, 41400, Gebze, Kocaeli.To obtain the sustainability of social life and to increase resistance to disaster that cause loss of life and properties; it is possible to raise awareness in the community about disaster preparedness and engross to take all the components. Disaster planning is an approach that targets the correct use of resources to decrease negative impacts in the community after the disaster. In Turkey, earthquake losses have an important role in disaster planning. There are two basic approaches for earthquake loss estimation used in disaster planning namely deterministic and probabilistic. Uncertainties of the seismic risk assessment parameters can be generated from ground motion computations, structural inventories and risk methodologies. In this study, uncertainties in the ground motion estimations are investigated. Gebze district that located close to major fault lines at Marmara region, and had significant damage during Kocaeli earthquake (1990), is selected as a study case for the risk assessment scenarios. The uncertainties parameters in ground motion computation that have major effect on the risk assessment are considered as earthquake source, earthquake magnitude and soil parameters. As a result, building damage ratios, loss of life and the need for shelter are computed. The soil amplification effects on the seismic intensity level and damage ratios are emphasized. The earthquake hazard estimation and risk assessment computation were performed utilizing geographic information system based software AFAD-RED. The software combines the scenario based seismic hazard procedure with the existing building inventories and soil data for the risk estimations. As a result, it is concluded that, uncertainties in ground motion computations have important effect on the seismic risk assessment and should be considered in disaster planning process.http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/52691natural disasterearthquakedisaster planning |
| spellingShingle | Yasin Fahjan Ferhat Pakdamar Yaşasın Eryılmaz Fatma Kara Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi natural disaster earthquake disaster planning |
| title | Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning |
| title_full | Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning |
| title_short | Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Assessment for Disaster Planning |
| title_sort | uncertainties in earthquake risk assessment for disaster planning |
| topic | natural disaster earthquake disaster planning |
| url | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/52691 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yasinfahjan uncertaintiesinearthquakeriskassessmentfordisasterplanning AT ferhatpakdamar uncertaintiesinearthquakeriskassessmentfordisasterplanning AT yasasıneryılmaz uncertaintiesinearthquakeriskassessmentfordisasterplanning AT fatmakara uncertaintiesinearthquakeriskassessmentfordisasterplanning |