The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models
To conduct this research, data on monthly synoptic and hydrometric precipitation observations from the National Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy were obtained for a 30-year period (1976-2005). To assess future changes in rainfall, historical data from the period (1976-2005) and...
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Kharazmi University
2025-03-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
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| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3714-en.pdf |
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| author | zeinab mokhayeri Ebrahim fatahi Reza Borna |
| author_facet | zeinab mokhayeri Ebrahim fatahi Reza Borna |
| author_sort | zeinab mokhayeri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To conduct this research, data on monthly synoptic and hydrometric precipitation observations from the National Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy were obtained for a 30-year period (1976-2005). To assess future changes in rainfall, historical data from the period (1976-2005) and simulated climate data from the period (2021-2050) using two models (CM3 and CSIRO-Mk3.6) from the CMIP5 series were used. These simulations were based on four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 using the BCSD method. A mean-based (MB) strategy was employed to correct any bias in the model outputs. The results of the AOGCM models indicated that the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model had a lower error coefficient than the GFDL-CM3 model when simulating precipitation in the Large Karoun case. The average future rainfall (2021-2050) across the entire basin, compared to the average observed rainfall during the statistical period of 1976-2005, exhibited a significant decrease in both the amount and extent of precipitation in both basins for all models and scenarios. In the Great Karoun Basin, heavy rains were consistently concentrated east of the basin across all scenarios and models, with the central foothills experiencing the highest rainfall and the southwest and southeast regions receiving the lowest amounts. The findings of this study estimate rainfall to range between 83-116 mm, with the highest rainfall expected in the Greater Karoun Basin under the rcp4.5 and rcp2.6 scenarios for both models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9a394b6bf3444e0598e5cfbe470503f9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-9a394b6bf3444e0598e5cfbe470503f92025-01-31T17:33:42ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382025-03-012576110125The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series modelszeinab mokhayeri0Ebrahim fatahi1Reza Borna2 To conduct this research, data on monthly synoptic and hydrometric precipitation observations from the National Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy were obtained for a 30-year period (1976-2005). To assess future changes in rainfall, historical data from the period (1976-2005) and simulated climate data from the period (2021-2050) using two models (CM3 and CSIRO-Mk3.6) from the CMIP5 series were used. These simulations were based on four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 using the BCSD method. A mean-based (MB) strategy was employed to correct any bias in the model outputs. The results of the AOGCM models indicated that the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model had a lower error coefficient than the GFDL-CM3 model when simulating precipitation in the Large Karoun case. The average future rainfall (2021-2050) across the entire basin, compared to the average observed rainfall during the statistical period of 1976-2005, exhibited a significant decrease in both the amount and extent of precipitation in both basins for all models and scenarios. In the Great Karoun Basin, heavy rains were consistently concentrated east of the basin across all scenarios and models, with the central foothills experiencing the highest rainfall and the southwest and southeast regions receiving the lowest amounts. The findings of this study estimate rainfall to range between 83-116 mm, with the highest rainfall expected in the Greater Karoun Basin under the rcp4.5 and rcp2.6 scenarios for both models.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3714-en.pdfforecastingcm3csiroprecipitationlarge karoon basin. |
| spellingShingle | zeinab mokhayeri Ebrahim fatahi Reza Borna The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی forecasting cm3 csiro precipitation large karoon basin. |
| title | The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models |
| title_full | The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models |
| title_fullStr | The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models |
| title_short | The Outlook of Precipitation Changes in the Great Karoun Using by CMIP5 series models |
| title_sort | outlook of precipitation changes in the great karoun using by cmip5 series models |
| topic | forecasting cm3 csiro precipitation large karoon basin. |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3714-en.pdf |
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