Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data
This study examines the impact and transmission of COVID-19 in Iraq via the development of a mathematical model grounded in the SIIhR framework. We assess and quantify the biological parameters of the model utilising empirical data. To ascertain the model’s reliability, we examine the existence and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Results in Control and Optimization |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720725000141 |
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| author | Wasan I. Khalil Ayad R. Khudair |
| author_facet | Wasan I. Khalil Ayad R. Khudair |
| author_sort | Wasan I. Khalil |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the impact and transmission of COVID-19 in Iraq via the development of a mathematical model grounded in the SIIhR framework. We assess and quantify the biological parameters of the model utilising empirical data. To ascertain the model’s reliability, we examine the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Utilising the validated model, we establish an optimal control problem aimed at minimising daily infections via vaccination, employing a cost function. We also present algorithms utilising Pontryagin’s minimum principle, with time-delay modifications, to identify the optimal vaccination strategy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9a0e30f5b20a4fe8a890d15f27a991da |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-7207 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Control and Optimization |
| spelling | doaj-art-9a0e30f5b20a4fe8a890d15f27a991da2025-01-31T05:12:31ZengElsevierResults in Control and Optimization2666-72072025-03-0118100528Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical dataWasan I. Khalil0Ayad R. Khudair1Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Basrah, Basrah, IraqCorresponding author.; Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Basrah, Basrah, IraqThis study examines the impact and transmission of COVID-19 in Iraq via the development of a mathematical model grounded in the SIIhR framework. We assess and quantify the biological parameters of the model utilising empirical data. To ascertain the model’s reliability, we examine the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Utilising the validated model, we establish an optimal control problem aimed at minimising daily infections via vaccination, employing a cost function. We also present algorithms utilising Pontryagin’s minimum principle, with time-delay modifications, to identify the optimal vaccination strategy.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720725000141S I Ih R modelCOVID-19 pandemicMathematical modelSensitivity analysisOptimal vaccination strategy |
| spellingShingle | Wasan I. Khalil Ayad R. Khudair Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data Results in Control and Optimization S I Ih R model COVID-19 pandemic Mathematical model Sensitivity analysis Optimal vaccination strategy |
| title | Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data |
| title_full | Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data |
| title_short | Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data |
| title_sort | mathematical analysis of covid 19 dynamics in iraq utilising empirical data |
| topic | S I Ih R model COVID-19 pandemic Mathematical model Sensitivity analysis Optimal vaccination strategy |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720725000141 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wasanikhalil mathematicalanalysisofcovid19dynamicsiniraqutilisingempiricaldata AT ayadrkhudair mathematicalanalysisofcovid19dynamicsiniraqutilisingempiricaldata |