2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses
Currently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Hubei province, China. In this paper, stochastic and deterministic models are proposed to investigate the transmission mechanism of 2019-nCoV from 15 January to 5 February 2020 in Hubei province. For the deterministi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9012178 |
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| _version_ | 1832554101644197888 |
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| author | Zhiming Li Zhidong Teng Changxing Ma |
| author_facet | Zhiming Li Zhidong Teng Changxing Ma |
| author_sort | Zhiming Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Currently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Hubei province, China. In this paper, stochastic and deterministic models are proposed to investigate the transmission mechanism of 2019-nCoV from 15 January to 5 February 2020 in Hubei province. For the deterministic model, basic reproduction number R0 is defined and endemic equilibrium is given. Under R0>1, quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic process is approximated by Gaussian diffusion. Residual, sensitivity, dynamical, and diffusion analyses of the models are conducted. Further, control variables are introduced to the deterministic model and optimal strategies are provided. Based on empirical results, we suggest that the first and most important thing is to control input, screening, treatment, and isolation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-99dd1435373542f39bbb86c50ee349c7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-99dd1435373542f39bbb86c50ee349c72025-02-03T05:52:28ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262020-01-01202010.1155/2020/901217890121782019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic AnalysesZhiming Li0Zhidong Teng1Changxing Ma2College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 834800, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 834800, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, University at Buffalo, Buffalo 14214, USACurrently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Hubei province, China. In this paper, stochastic and deterministic models are proposed to investigate the transmission mechanism of 2019-nCoV from 15 January to 5 February 2020 in Hubei province. For the deterministic model, basic reproduction number R0 is defined and endemic equilibrium is given. Under R0>1, quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic process is approximated by Gaussian diffusion. Residual, sensitivity, dynamical, and diffusion analyses of the models are conducted. Further, control variables are introduced to the deterministic model and optimal strategies are provided. Based on empirical results, we suggest that the first and most important thing is to control input, screening, treatment, and isolation.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9012178 |
| spellingShingle | Zhiming Li Zhidong Teng Changxing Ma 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses Complexity |
| title | 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses |
| title_full | 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses |
| title_fullStr | 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses |
| title_full_unstemmed | 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses |
| title_short | 2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses |
| title_sort | 2019 ncov transmission in hubei province china stochastic and deterministic analyses |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9012178 |
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