Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context
Summary: Background: Drug use disorder (DUD) poses a major public health crisis globally, necessitating immediate attention to global trends and future projections to develop effective health policies and interventions. Thus, we aimed to estimate the global trends in DUD mortality rates from 1990 t...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| author | Soeun Kim Hayeon Lee Selin Woo Hyeri Lee Jaeyu Park Tae Kim Guillaume Fond Laurent Boyer Masoud Rahmati Lee Smith Guillermo F. López Sánchez Elena Dragioti Christa J. Nehs Jinseok Lee Hyeon Jin Kim Jiseung Kang Dong Keon Yon |
| author_facet | Soeun Kim Hayeon Lee Selin Woo Hyeri Lee Jaeyu Park Tae Kim Guillaume Fond Laurent Boyer Masoud Rahmati Lee Smith Guillermo F. López Sánchez Elena Dragioti Christa J. Nehs Jinseok Lee Hyeon Jin Kim Jiseung Kang Dong Keon Yon |
| author_sort | Soeun Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Drug use disorder (DUD) poses a major public health crisis globally, necessitating immediate attention to global trends and future projections to develop effective health policies and interventions. Thus, we aimed to estimate the global trends in DUD mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 and future projections of DUD deaths until 2040 across 73 countries. Methods: In this time-series analysis and modelling study, we investigated the global trends in DUD mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 using the WHO Mortality Database and forecasted future trends through 2040. Global trend analysis was analysed using a locally weighted scatter plot smoother (LOESS) curve, and future projections were calculated based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. In addition, we performed a decomposition analysis to identify the variations in DUD deaths, specifically examining factors such as population growth, ageing, and epidemiological changes. Findings: Of the 73 countries included in the analysis of DUD mortality, 45 were high-income countries (HICs), and 28 were low to middle-income countries (LMICs). The LOESS estimates of the global DUD mortality rate were 1.84 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, −0.44 to 4.12) in 1990 and 13.09 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 10.74–15.43) in 2021. Notably, HICs showed a significant increase in DUD mortality from 1.43 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, −1.55 to 4.42) in 1990 to 17.19 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 13.84–20.53) in 2021. A significant increase in DUD mortality was observed among individuals aged 25–64 and males. Our analysis also identified associations between DUD mortality rates and several log-transformed parameters, including Human Development Index (β, 14.92; p < 0.0001), Socio-demographic Index (β, 11.80; p < 0.0001), reverse Gender Gap Index (β, −12.02; p < 0.0001), and Gini coefficient (β, −1.84; p < 0.0001). From 1990 to 2021, the increase in the number of DUD deaths globally can be attributed to two prominent factors: epidemiological change and population growth. In HICs, the impacts of epidemiological changes for increasing DUD mortality rates were particularly prominent compared to other factors. In the Bayesian age-period-cohort models, the predicted number of global DUD deaths up to 2040 were estimated to increase from 25.95 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% credible interval [CrI], 24.72–27.28) in 2021 to 38.45 (95% CrI, 30.48–49.33) in 2030, and 42.43 (95% CrI, 23.67–77.77) in 2040. Interpretation: An increasing trend in global DUD mortality was observed from 1990 to 2021, especially in HICs. Future DUD deaths were also predicted to increase until 2040 at the global level. Therefore, these findings suggest urgent and proactive strategies for DUD to reduce the mortality rates related to DUD are needed. However, further prospective research that accounts for potential confounding factors, such as socioeconomic variables and the quality of reporting data from individual countries, is imperative for more accurate estimation. Funding: National Research Foundation and Ministry of Science and ICT of South Korea. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-98fc96a2e5494da5bda3505899155265 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-5370 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EClinicalMedicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-98fc96a2e5494da5bda35058991552652025-01-22T05:43:18ZengElsevierEClinicalMedicine2589-53702025-01-0179102985Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in contextSoeun Kim0Hayeon Lee1Selin Woo2Hyeri Lee3Jaeyu Park4Tae Kim5Guillaume Fond6Laurent Boyer7Masoud Rahmati8Lee Smith9Guillermo F. López Sánchez10Elena Dragioti11Christa J. Nehs12Jinseok Lee13Hyeon Jin Kim14Jiseung Kang15Dong Keon Yon16Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Precision Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South KoreaCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South KoreaCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South KoreaCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Regulatory Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South KoreaCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Regulatory Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South KoreaDepartment of Biomedical Science and Engineering, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju, South KoreaCEReSS-Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, FranceCEReSS-Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, FranceCEReSS-Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France; Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran; Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Vali-E-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, IranCentre for Health, Performance and Wellbeing, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UKDivision of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Murcia, Murcia, SpainResearch Laboratory Psychology of Patients, Families, and Health Professionals, Department of Nursing, School of Health Sciences, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, GreeceDepartment of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Sleep Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USADepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Kyung Hee University College of Electronics and Information, Yongin, South KoreaCenter for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Regulatory Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea; Corresponding author. Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, 23 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02447, South Korea.Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Sleep Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Corresponding author. Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, 149 13th Street, Room 4140, Charlestown, Boston, MA, 02129, USA.Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Precision Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Regulatory Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Biomedical Engineering, Kyung Hee University College of Electronics and Information, Yongin, South Korea; Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Corresponding author. Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, 23 Kyungheedae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02447, South Korea.Summary: Background: Drug use disorder (DUD) poses a major public health crisis globally, necessitating immediate attention to global trends and future projections to develop effective health policies and interventions. Thus, we aimed to estimate the global trends in DUD mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 and future projections of DUD deaths until 2040 across 73 countries. Methods: In this time-series analysis and modelling study, we investigated the global trends in DUD mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 using the WHO Mortality Database and forecasted future trends through 2040. Global trend analysis was analysed using a locally weighted scatter plot smoother (LOESS) curve, and future projections were calculated based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. In addition, we performed a decomposition analysis to identify the variations in DUD deaths, specifically examining factors such as population growth, ageing, and epidemiological changes. Findings: Of the 73 countries included in the analysis of DUD mortality, 45 were high-income countries (HICs), and 28 were low to middle-income countries (LMICs). The LOESS estimates of the global DUD mortality rate were 1.84 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, −0.44 to 4.12) in 1990 and 13.09 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 10.74–15.43) in 2021. Notably, HICs showed a significant increase in DUD mortality from 1.43 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, −1.55 to 4.42) in 1990 to 17.19 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 13.84–20.53) in 2021. A significant increase in DUD mortality was observed among individuals aged 25–64 and males. Our analysis also identified associations between DUD mortality rates and several log-transformed parameters, including Human Development Index (β, 14.92; p < 0.0001), Socio-demographic Index (β, 11.80; p < 0.0001), reverse Gender Gap Index (β, −12.02; p < 0.0001), and Gini coefficient (β, −1.84; p < 0.0001). From 1990 to 2021, the increase in the number of DUD deaths globally can be attributed to two prominent factors: epidemiological change and population growth. In HICs, the impacts of epidemiological changes for increasing DUD mortality rates were particularly prominent compared to other factors. In the Bayesian age-period-cohort models, the predicted number of global DUD deaths up to 2040 were estimated to increase from 25.95 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% credible interval [CrI], 24.72–27.28) in 2021 to 38.45 (95% CrI, 30.48–49.33) in 2030, and 42.43 (95% CrI, 23.67–77.77) in 2040. Interpretation: An increasing trend in global DUD mortality was observed from 1990 to 2021, especially in HICs. Future DUD deaths were also predicted to increase until 2040 at the global level. Therefore, these findings suggest urgent and proactive strategies for DUD to reduce the mortality rates related to DUD are needed. However, further prospective research that accounts for potential confounding factors, such as socioeconomic variables and the quality of reporting data from individual countries, is imperative for more accurate estimation. Funding: National Research Foundation and Ministry of Science and ICT of South Korea.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537024005649Drug useMortalityGlobal trendPrediction model |
| spellingShingle | Soeun Kim Hayeon Lee Selin Woo Hyeri Lee Jaeyu Park Tae Kim Guillaume Fond Laurent Boyer Masoud Rahmati Lee Smith Guillermo F. López Sánchez Elena Dragioti Christa J. Nehs Jinseok Lee Hyeon Jin Kim Jiseung Kang Dong Keon Yon Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context EClinicalMedicine Drug use Mortality Global trend Prediction model |
| title | Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2040: a global time-series analysis and modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_sort | global regional and national trends in drug use disorder mortality rates across 73 countries from 1990 to 2021 with projections up to 2040 a global time series analysis and modelling studyresearch in context |
| topic | Drug use Mortality Global trend Prediction model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537024005649 |
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