Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest
Abstract Forest restoration can potentially contribute to multiple global sustainable development goals. Yet, little is known about the factors associated with local actors' choice to engage in restoration, limiting the development of effective scaling strategies. Our study examines the spatial...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10765 |
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| author | Thomas Pienkowski Anna Freni Sterrantino Anazelia M. Tedesco Matt Clark Pedro H. S. Brancalion Arundhati Jagadish Alex Mendes Ludmila Pugliese de Siqueira Morena Mills |
| author_facet | Thomas Pienkowski Anna Freni Sterrantino Anazelia M. Tedesco Matt Clark Pedro H. S. Brancalion Arundhati Jagadish Alex Mendes Ludmila Pugliese de Siqueira Morena Mills |
| author_sort | Thomas Pienkowski |
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| description | Abstract Forest restoration can potentially contribute to multiple global sustainable development goals. Yet, little is known about the factors associated with local actors' choice to engage in restoration, limiting the development of effective scaling strategies. Our study examines the spatial socio‐ecological factors associated with landowners' engagement in forest restoration, documented by the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact in Brazil. We draw on Diffusion of Innovations theory to model associations between forest restoration and explanatory variables among 222,000 private properties in the Atlantic Forest. Properties with the highest cattle densities were 163.9% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 131.1%–201.3%) than those with the lowest. Large properties had a 120.0% higher restoration probability (95% CI: 90.9%–153.5%) than medium ones. Compared to reference levels, associations between forest cover (in 2010) and restoration probability were ambiguous, but properties with greater forest loss (1990–2010) were 9.0% less likely to be restored (95% CI: −12.5% to −5.3%). Properties with water bodies were 22.2% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 8.9%–37.1%), while upland properties were 46.6% less likely (95% CI: 32.3%–57.8%), and those with the highest ruggedness 22.2% less likely (95% CI: 12.4%–30.9%). Longer travel times to urban areas reduced restoration likelihood by 48.3% (95% CI: 39.7%–55.8%). Properties in the highest road distance quantile were 11.1% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 0.1%–23.2%). High forest management levels reduced restoration likelihood by 52.6% (95% CI: 15.5%–73.6%), while densely populated areas increased it by 53.8% (95% CI: 35.6%–74.4%). Properties in wealthier municipalities were more likely to be restored (54.7%, 95% CI 10.8%–116.4%). Landowners' decision‐making appears responsive to legislative requirements (on minimum forest cover and afforestation around waterbodies), underscoring their value for promoting restoration. Commercial landowners might have greater incentives to restore or be selectively targeted by restoration organisations, risking the marginalisation of smallholders in poorer areas from restoration agendas. Engagement with forest restoration is highest where there are more people and lower travel times to cities, suggesting restoration can potentially deliver ecological benefits in some of Brazil's most degraded landscapes. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-98e59e3de11d4275bf8085f47c613544 |
| institution | Kabale University |
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| spelling | doaj-art-98e59e3de11d4275bf8085f47c6135442025-01-23T04:04:08ZengWileyPeople and Nature2575-83142025-01-017124726410.1002/pan3.10765Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic ForestThomas Pienkowski0Anna Freni Sterrantino1Anazelia M. Tedesco2Matt Clark3Pedro H. S. Brancalion4Arundhati Jagadish5Alex Mendes6Ludmila Pugliese de Siqueira7Morena Mills8Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UKThe Alan Turing Institute London UKCentre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland AustraliaCentre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UKDepartment of Forest Sciences University of São Paulo São Paulo BrazilThe Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science Conservation International Arlington Texas USADepartment of Forest Sciences “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo Piracicaba BrazilDepartment of Forest Sciences “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo Piracicaba BrazilCentre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UKAbstract Forest restoration can potentially contribute to multiple global sustainable development goals. Yet, little is known about the factors associated with local actors' choice to engage in restoration, limiting the development of effective scaling strategies. Our study examines the spatial socio‐ecological factors associated with landowners' engagement in forest restoration, documented by the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact in Brazil. We draw on Diffusion of Innovations theory to model associations between forest restoration and explanatory variables among 222,000 private properties in the Atlantic Forest. Properties with the highest cattle densities were 163.9% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 131.1%–201.3%) than those with the lowest. Large properties had a 120.0% higher restoration probability (95% CI: 90.9%–153.5%) than medium ones. Compared to reference levels, associations between forest cover (in 2010) and restoration probability were ambiguous, but properties with greater forest loss (1990–2010) were 9.0% less likely to be restored (95% CI: −12.5% to −5.3%). Properties with water bodies were 22.2% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 8.9%–37.1%), while upland properties were 46.6% less likely (95% CI: 32.3%–57.8%), and those with the highest ruggedness 22.2% less likely (95% CI: 12.4%–30.9%). Longer travel times to urban areas reduced restoration likelihood by 48.3% (95% CI: 39.7%–55.8%). Properties in the highest road distance quantile were 11.1% more likely to be restored (95% CI: 0.1%–23.2%). High forest management levels reduced restoration likelihood by 52.6% (95% CI: 15.5%–73.6%), while densely populated areas increased it by 53.8% (95% CI: 35.6%–74.4%). Properties in wealthier municipalities were more likely to be restored (54.7%, 95% CI 10.8%–116.4%). Landowners' decision‐making appears responsive to legislative requirements (on minimum forest cover and afforestation around waterbodies), underscoring their value for promoting restoration. Commercial landowners might have greater incentives to restore or be selectively targeted by restoration organisations, risking the marginalisation of smallholders in poorer areas from restoration agendas. Engagement with forest restoration is highest where there are more people and lower travel times to cities, suggesting restoration can potentially deliver ecological benefits in some of Brazil's most degraded landscapes. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10765adoptionAtlantic Forest Restoration PactDiffusion of Innovations theoryengagementforest restorationreforestation |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Pienkowski Anna Freni Sterrantino Anazelia M. Tedesco Matt Clark Pedro H. S. Brancalion Arundhati Jagadish Alex Mendes Ludmila Pugliese de Siqueira Morena Mills Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest People and Nature adoption Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact Diffusion of Innovations theory engagement forest restoration reforestation |
| title | Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest |
| title_full | Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest |
| title_fullStr | Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest |
| title_short | Spatial predictors of landowners' engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest |
| title_sort | spatial predictors of landowners engagement in the restoration of the brazilian atlantic forest |
| topic | adoption Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact Diffusion of Innovations theory engagement forest restoration reforestation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10765 |
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