Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations
Abstract Climate‐induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector‐borne disease dynamics. Like mos...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70074 |
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| author | Travis McDevitt‐Galles Arthur T. Degaetano Sarah C. Elmendorf John R. Foster Howard S. Ginsberg Mevin B. Hooten Shannon LaDeau Katherine M. McClure Sara Paull Erin Posthumus Ilia Rochlin Daniel Grear |
| author_facet | Travis McDevitt‐Galles Arthur T. Degaetano Sarah C. Elmendorf John R. Foster Howard S. Ginsberg Mevin B. Hooten Shannon LaDeau Katherine M. McClure Sara Paull Erin Posthumus Ilia Rochlin Daniel Grear |
| author_sort | Travis McDevitt‐Galles |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate‐induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector‐borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development and corresponding phenological patterns are expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecasts of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data. As climate change will have variable effects on mosquito demography and phenology across species it is vital that we identify associated traits that may explain the observed variation. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We describe four primary life history and physiological traits that can be used to constrain models and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop a more general understanding of how mosquito activity will shift under changing climates. Combining a trait‐based approach with appropriate modeling techniques can allow for the development of actionable, flexible, and multi‐scale forecasts of mosquito population dynamics and phenology for diverse stakeholders. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-96f37bfcec2f4c52baebd7f46d6fbcf2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-96f37bfcec2f4c52baebd7f46d6fbcf22025-01-27T14:51:33ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252024-12-011512n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.70074Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populationsTravis McDevitt‐Galles0Arthur T. Degaetano1Sarah C. Elmendorf2John R. Foster3Howard S. Ginsberg4Mevin B. Hooten5Shannon LaDeau6Katherine M. McClure7Sara Paull8Erin Posthumus9Ilia Rochlin10Daniel Grear11U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center Madison Wisconsin USANortheast Regional Climate Center Cornell University Ithaca New York USAInstitute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado USADepartment of Earth and Environment Boston University Boston Massachusetts USAU.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Laurel Maryland USADepartment of Statistics and Data Sciences The University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas USACary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook New York USAU.S. Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center Hawaii National Park Hawaii USABattelle, National Ecological Observatory Network Boulder Colorado USAUSA National Phenology Network University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USACenter for Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology and Immunology Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York USAU.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center Madison Wisconsin USAAbstract Climate‐induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector‐borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development and corresponding phenological patterns are expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecasts of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data. As climate change will have variable effects on mosquito demography and phenology across species it is vital that we identify associated traits that may explain the observed variation. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We describe four primary life history and physiological traits that can be used to constrain models and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop a more general understanding of how mosquito activity will shift under changing climates. Combining a trait‐based approach with appropriate modeling techniques can allow for the development of actionable, flexible, and multi‐scale forecasts of mosquito population dynamics and phenology for diverse stakeholders.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70074climate changeforecastingmacroecologymosquitophenologysynthesis |
| spellingShingle | Travis McDevitt‐Galles Arthur T. Degaetano Sarah C. Elmendorf John R. Foster Howard S. Ginsberg Mevin B. Hooten Shannon LaDeau Katherine M. McClure Sara Paull Erin Posthumus Ilia Rochlin Daniel Grear Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations Ecosphere climate change forecasting macroecology mosquito phenology synthesis |
| title | Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| title_full | Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| title_fullStr | Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| title_short | Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| title_sort | partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations |
| topic | climate change forecasting macroecology mosquito phenology synthesis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70074 |
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