Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis
This paper presents a p-step-ahead forecasting strategy based on two stages to improve pelagic fish-catch time-series modeling by considering annual and interannual fluctuations for northern Chile (18°S–24°S). In the first stage, the stationary wavelet transform is used to separate the raw time seri...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/798464 |
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| author | Nibaldo Rodríguez Claudio Cubillos José-Miguel Rubio |
| author_facet | Nibaldo Rodríguez Claudio Cubillos José-Miguel Rubio |
| author_sort | Nibaldo Rodríguez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a p-step-ahead forecasting strategy based on two stages to improve pelagic fish-catch time-series modeling by considering annual and interannual fluctuations for northern Chile (18°S–24°S). In the first stage, the stationary wavelet transform is used to separate the raw time series into an annual component and an interannual component, whereas the periodicities of each component are obtained using the Morlet wavelet power spectrum. In the second stage, a linear autoregressive model is constructed to predict each component and the unknown p-next values are forecasted by the addition of the two predicted components. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed forecasting model on monthly anchovy-catches time series for periods from January 1963 to December 2007. Empirical results obtained for 10-month-ahead forecasting showed the effectiveness of the proposed wavelet autoregressive strategy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-95fdca7b43554a9498a6650c45f718a5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-757X 1687-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-95fdca7b43554a9498a6650c45f718a52025-02-03T05:51:18ZengWileyJournal of Applied Mathematics1110-757X1687-00422014-01-01201410.1155/2014/798464798464Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet AnalysisNibaldo Rodríguez0Claudio Cubillos1José-Miguel Rubio2School of Informatics Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, ChileSchool of Informatics Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, ChileSchool of Informatics Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, ChileThis paper presents a p-step-ahead forecasting strategy based on two stages to improve pelagic fish-catch time-series modeling by considering annual and interannual fluctuations for northern Chile (18°S–24°S). In the first stage, the stationary wavelet transform is used to separate the raw time series into an annual component and an interannual component, whereas the periodicities of each component are obtained using the Morlet wavelet power spectrum. In the second stage, a linear autoregressive model is constructed to predict each component and the unknown p-next values are forecasted by the addition of the two predicted components. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed forecasting model on monthly anchovy-catches time series for periods from January 1963 to December 2007. Empirical results obtained for 10-month-ahead forecasting showed the effectiveness of the proposed wavelet autoregressive strategy.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/798464 |
| spellingShingle | Nibaldo Rodríguez Claudio Cubillos José-Miguel Rubio Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| title | Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis |
| title_full | Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis |
| title_short | Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Model for Monthly Anchovy Catches Based on Wavelet Analysis |
| title_sort | multi step ahead forecasting model for monthly anchovy catches based on wavelet analysis |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/798464 |
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