APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021

The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems i...

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Main Author: V. V. Kabernik
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MGIMO University Press 2016-08-01
Series:Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/610
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author V. V. Kabernik
author_facet V. V. Kabernik
author_sort V. V. Kabernik
collection DOAJ
description The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.
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spelling doaj-art-95b55f73ac054b4d8f9558c7ac3750272025-01-30T12:16:15ZengMGIMO University PressVestnik MGIMO-Universiteta2071-81602541-90992016-08-0104(49)21823410.24833/2071-8160-2016-4-49-218-234610APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021V. V. Kabernik0PIR CenterThe article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/610nuclear weaponsstrategic deterrenceinternational treatiesstartnew startforeign policymultilateral agreementsmultilateral treaties
spellingShingle V. V. Kabernik
APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta
nuclear weapons
strategic deterrence
international treaties
start
new start
foreign policy
multilateral agreements
multilateral treaties
title APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_full APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_fullStr APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_full_unstemmed APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_short APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021
title_sort approaches to building of global strategic deterrence system past 2021
topic nuclear weapons
strategic deterrence
international treaties
start
new start
foreign policy
multilateral agreements
multilateral treaties
url https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/610
work_keys_str_mv AT vvkabernik approachestobuildingofglobalstrategicdeterrencesystempast2021