Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors
This research examines how mayors’ fiscal decisions affect their likelihood of re-election, with a particular focus on their use of political business cycle tactics during local elections. The theory suggests that there are some incentives for incumbents to manipulate fiscal policy at the local leve...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Regional Studies, Regional Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21681376.2025.2454275 |
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| author | Krzysztof Kluza Hanna Kociemska Wojciech Rafał |
| author_facet | Krzysztof Kluza Hanna Kociemska Wojciech Rafał |
| author_sort | Krzysztof Kluza |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research examines how mayors’ fiscal decisions affect their likelihood of re-election, with a particular focus on their use of political business cycle tactics during local elections. The theory suggests that there are some incentives for incumbents to manipulate fiscal policy at the local level. The study examines the budgets of 2475 local government units in Poland over 15 years, covering three full local election cycles, using a panel data logit model to assess the influence of their fiscal activity on re-election outcomes. The results show that increasing deficits or investments in election years can significantly improve the re-election prospects of mayors, with a stronger effect for investments. However, investment is less susceptible to short-term changes and deficits are easier to influence. Increasing the deficit raises the likelihood of re-election by about 80% (odds ratios), while running large budget surpluses through reduced spending can effectively eliminate the chances of re-election. Furthermore, increasing debt has no significant effect on re-election chances. The research also examines which categories of local government are most likely to exhibit incumbency behaviour consistent with political business cycle theory. The overall analysis highlights the complex relationship between fiscal policy choices and electoral victory in local government. It provides insights into political strategies and their consequences for political accountability and fiscal responsibility. The research findings suggest the need for additional checks and balances, such as deficit ceilings, to counteract politically motivated fiscal mismanagement and underline the importance of fiscal responsibility in local governance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-94cdfd5f01de4ea1a56b9b654a0f5edc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2168-1376 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Regional Studies, Regional Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-94cdfd5f01de4ea1a56b9b654a0f5edc2025-02-05T11:28:03ZengTaylor & Francis GroupRegional Studies, Regional Science2168-13762025-12-01121577510.1080/21681376.2025.2454275Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayorsKrzysztof Kluza0Hanna Kociemska1Wojciech Rafał2Department of Quantitative Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, PolandFinance Department, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, Wroclaw, PolandDigital Department, Crido Business and Digital Services, CRIDO, Warsaw, PolandThis research examines how mayors’ fiscal decisions affect their likelihood of re-election, with a particular focus on their use of political business cycle tactics during local elections. The theory suggests that there are some incentives for incumbents to manipulate fiscal policy at the local level. The study examines the budgets of 2475 local government units in Poland over 15 years, covering three full local election cycles, using a panel data logit model to assess the influence of their fiscal activity on re-election outcomes. The results show that increasing deficits or investments in election years can significantly improve the re-election prospects of mayors, with a stronger effect for investments. However, investment is less susceptible to short-term changes and deficits are easier to influence. Increasing the deficit raises the likelihood of re-election by about 80% (odds ratios), while running large budget surpluses through reduced spending can effectively eliminate the chances of re-election. Furthermore, increasing debt has no significant effect on re-election chances. The research also examines which categories of local government are most likely to exhibit incumbency behaviour consistent with political business cycle theory. The overall analysis highlights the complex relationship between fiscal policy choices and electoral victory in local government. It provides insights into political strategies and their consequences for political accountability and fiscal responsibility. The research findings suggest the need for additional checks and balances, such as deficit ceilings, to counteract politically motivated fiscal mismanagement and underline the importance of fiscal responsibility in local governance.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21681376.2025.2454275Political business cyclemunicipalitiesre-electionlocal budgetdeficitinvestment |
| spellingShingle | Krzysztof Kluza Hanna Kociemska Wojciech Rafał Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors Regional Studies, Regional Science Political business cycle municipalities re-election local budget deficit investment |
| title | Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| title_full | Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| title_fullStr | Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| title_short | Balancing the books or winning votes: unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| title_sort | balancing the books or winning votes unveiling the power of fiscal strategies in local elections and the fate of prudent mayors |
| topic | Political business cycle municipalities re-election local budget deficit investment |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21681376.2025.2454275 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT krzysztofkluza balancingthebooksorwinningvotesunveilingthepoweroffiscalstrategiesinlocalelectionsandthefateofprudentmayors AT hannakociemska balancingthebooksorwinningvotesunveilingthepoweroffiscalstrategiesinlocalelectionsandthefateofprudentmayors AT wojciechrafał balancingthebooksorwinningvotesunveilingthepoweroffiscalstrategiesinlocalelectionsandthefateofprudentmayors |