Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review

International political (IP) relations have long been concerned about the relationship between economic interdependence and the likelihood of war. Based on a systematic literature review, this paper investigates how globalization and increased economic interactions post-World War II have influenced...

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Main Authors: Romaeus Hover, Gertrud Buchenrieder, Joel Sokolsky
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-12-01
Series:Cogent Social Sciences
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Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2025.2488114
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author Romaeus Hover
Gertrud Buchenrieder
Joel Sokolsky
author_facet Romaeus Hover
Gertrud Buchenrieder
Joel Sokolsky
author_sort Romaeus Hover
collection DOAJ
description International political (IP) relations have long been concerned about the relationship between economic interdependence and the likelihood of war. Based on a systematic literature review, this paper investigates how globalization and increased economic interactions post-World War II have influenced global conflict dynamics. The review contrasts liberal and realist schools of thought, with liberals suggesting that economic interdependence reduces war likelihood due to high opportunity costs due to disrupted trade. Using similar arguments, the realists propose a positive relationship, arguing that war has a minimal impact on trade. The review reconciles these differing perspectives through a detailed examination of various studies conducted between 1977 and 2022, highlighting the neglected effect of moderator variables in interpreting results. It also discusses the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on global food crises and economic dynamics, illustrating the contemporary relevance of this topic. The paper concludes by summarizing results and highlighting the influence of potential moderator variables on the relationship between economic interdependence and war likelihood.
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spelling doaj-art-922b4c0e8edc4a94ae48a3fa48e3e9622025-08-20T02:27:11ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Social Sciences2331-18862025-12-0111110.1080/23311886.2025.2488114Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature reviewRomaeus Hover0Gertrud Buchenrieder1Joel Sokolsky2Department of Social Science and State Affairs, RISK Research Center, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Neubiberg, GermanyDepartment of Social Science and State Affairs, RISK Research Center, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Neubiberg, GermanyDepartment of Political Studies, Queens University, Ontario, CanadaInternational political (IP) relations have long been concerned about the relationship between economic interdependence and the likelihood of war. Based on a systematic literature review, this paper investigates how globalization and increased economic interactions post-World War II have influenced global conflict dynamics. The review contrasts liberal and realist schools of thought, with liberals suggesting that economic interdependence reduces war likelihood due to high opportunity costs due to disrupted trade. Using similar arguments, the realists propose a positive relationship, arguing that war has a minimal impact on trade. The review reconciles these differing perspectives through a detailed examination of various studies conducted between 1977 and 2022, highlighting the neglected effect of moderator variables in interpreting results. It also discusses the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on global food crises and economic dynamics, illustrating the contemporary relevance of this topic. The paper concludes by summarizing results and highlighting the influence of potential moderator variables on the relationship between economic interdependence and war likelihood.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2025.2488114Economic integrationconflict dynamicsinternational political relationsrealist and liberal schools of thoughtmoderator variablesinterdependence
spellingShingle Romaeus Hover
Gertrud Buchenrieder
Joel Sokolsky
Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
Cogent Social Sciences
Economic integration
conflict dynamics
international political relations
realist and liberal schools of thought
moderator variables
interdependence
title Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
title_full Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
title_fullStr Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
title_full_unstemmed Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
title_short Economic interdependence and the likelihood of war – a systematic literature review
title_sort economic interdependence and the likelihood of war a systematic literature review
topic Economic integration
conflict dynamics
international political relations
realist and liberal schools of thought
moderator variables
interdependence
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2025.2488114
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AT gertrudbuchenrieder economicinterdependenceandthelikelihoodofwarasystematicliteraturereview
AT joelsokolsky economicinterdependenceandthelikelihoodofwarasystematicliteraturereview