Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability
Understanding effects of extreme heat across diverse settings is critical as social determinants play an important role in modifying heat-related risks. We apply a multi-scale analysis to understand spatial variation in the effects of heat across Mexico and explore factors that are explaining hetero...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Environment International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008183 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832589991161626624 |
|---|---|
| author | Lara Schwarz Chen Chen Javier Emmanuel Castillo Quiñones L.C. Aguilar-Dodier Kristen Hansen Jaime Reyes Sanchez David J.X. González Gordon McCord Tarik Benmarhnia |
| author_facet | Lara Schwarz Chen Chen Javier Emmanuel Castillo Quiñones L.C. Aguilar-Dodier Kristen Hansen Jaime Reyes Sanchez David J.X. González Gordon McCord Tarik Benmarhnia |
| author_sort | Lara Schwarz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding effects of extreme heat across diverse settings is critical as social determinants play an important role in modifying heat-related risks. We apply a multi-scale analysis to understand spatial variation in the effects of heat across Mexico and explore factors that are explaining heterogeneity. Daily all-cause mortality was collected from the Mexican Secretary of Health and municipality-specific extreme heat events were estimated using population-weighted temperatures from 1998 to 2019 using Daymet and WorldPop datasets. We analyzed the association between single-day extreme heat events defined at the 99th percentile of the same-day maximum temperature and mortality, and seven heat threshold metrics based on relative and absolute scales were considered as sensitivity analyses. A time-stratified case-crossover was applied to evaluate heat impacts across 32 states in Mexico. A within-community matched design with Bayesian Hierarchical model explored effects across 2456 municipalities. A random-effects meta-regression was applied to understand which municipality-level socio-demographic characteristics such as education, age and housing predicted observed spatial heterogeneity. Extreme heat increased the odds of mortality overall, and this was consistent across extreme heat thresholds. At the state level, extreme heat events showed highest impact on mortality in Tabasco [OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.30]. The municipality-level spatial analysis showed substantial differences across regions with highest effects observed along the eastern, southwestern and Sonora coasts. Municipalities with older populations, higher marginalization, lower education, and poorer housing conditions were more vulnerable to heat effects. Understanding the differential risks of extreme heat events at varying scales is important to prioritize at-risk populations in action plans and policies to reduce their burden. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-919a5ce06a964d588cda8273744f1a65 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj-art-919a5ce06a964d588cda8273744f1a652025-01-24T04:44:09ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202025-01-01195109231Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerabilityLara Schwarz0Chen Chen1Javier Emmanuel Castillo Quiñones2L.C. Aguilar-Dodier3Kristen Hansen4Jaime Reyes Sanchez5David J.X. González6Gordon McCord7Tarik Benmarhnia8School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA; Corresponding author at: 2121 Berkeley Way West 5104-1, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94704, USA.Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USAFacultad de Ciencias Químicas e Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Tijuana, MéxicoFacultad de Ciencias Químicas e Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Tijuana, MéxicoAxle Research and Technology, Rockville, MD, USADepartment of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, CA, USADivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USASchool of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USAScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Irset Institut de Recherche en Santé, Environnement et Travail, UMR-S 1085, Inserm, University of Rennes, EHESP, Rennes, FranceUnderstanding effects of extreme heat across diverse settings is critical as social determinants play an important role in modifying heat-related risks. We apply a multi-scale analysis to understand spatial variation in the effects of heat across Mexico and explore factors that are explaining heterogeneity. Daily all-cause mortality was collected from the Mexican Secretary of Health and municipality-specific extreme heat events were estimated using population-weighted temperatures from 1998 to 2019 using Daymet and WorldPop datasets. We analyzed the association between single-day extreme heat events defined at the 99th percentile of the same-day maximum temperature and mortality, and seven heat threshold metrics based on relative and absolute scales were considered as sensitivity analyses. A time-stratified case-crossover was applied to evaluate heat impacts across 32 states in Mexico. A within-community matched design with Bayesian Hierarchical model explored effects across 2456 municipalities. A random-effects meta-regression was applied to understand which municipality-level socio-demographic characteristics such as education, age and housing predicted observed spatial heterogeneity. Extreme heat increased the odds of mortality overall, and this was consistent across extreme heat thresholds. At the state level, extreme heat events showed highest impact on mortality in Tabasco [OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.30]. The municipality-level spatial analysis showed substantial differences across regions with highest effects observed along the eastern, southwestern and Sonora coasts. Municipalities with older populations, higher marginalization, lower education, and poorer housing conditions were more vulnerable to heat effects. Understanding the differential risks of extreme heat events at varying scales is important to prioritize at-risk populations in action plans and policies to reduce their burden.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008183Extreme heatSocial vulnerabilityMexicoSpatial analysis |
| spellingShingle | Lara Schwarz Chen Chen Javier Emmanuel Castillo Quiñones L.C. Aguilar-Dodier Kristen Hansen Jaime Reyes Sanchez David J.X. González Gordon McCord Tarik Benmarhnia Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability Environment International Extreme heat Social vulnerability Mexico Spatial analysis |
| title | Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability |
| title_full | Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability |
| title_fullStr | Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability |
| title_short | Heat-related mortality in Mexico: A multi-scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality-level vulnerability |
| title_sort | heat related mortality in mexico a multi scale spatial analysis of extreme heat effects and municipality level vulnerability |
| topic | Extreme heat Social vulnerability Mexico Spatial analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008183 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laraschwarz heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT chenchen heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT javieremmanuelcastilloquinones heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT lcaguilardodier heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT kristenhansen heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT jaimereyessanchez heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT davidjxgonzalez heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT gordonmccord heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability AT tarikbenmarhnia heatrelatedmortalityinmexicoamultiscalespatialanalysisofextremeheateffectsandmunicipalitylevelvulnerability |