A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty
The 2011 Fukushima disaster and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic are two major 21st century events that were least expected while being highly disruptive, having an immediate as well as longer-term impact on shipping operations. However, while pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon of the “known-knowns” typ...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/93 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832588215637245952 |
|---|---|
| author | Helen Thanopoulou Siri Pettersen Strandenes |
| author_facet | Helen Thanopoulou Siri Pettersen Strandenes |
| author_sort | Helen Thanopoulou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 2011 Fukushima disaster and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic are two major 21st century events that were least expected while being highly disruptive, having an immediate as well as longer-term impact on shipping operations. However, while pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon of the “known-knowns” type, the combination of phenomena which led to Fukushima had no assigned probability; hence, no preparedness was in place, as this was practically a unique occurrence in shipping. Considering significant shipping incidents of various less or more uncommon etiologies, such as the capsizing of vessels, missile attacks on merchant ships or vessel-onto-bridge collisions, this conceptual paper puts forward a consequence-based approach for assessing and managing shocks in the maritime domain, especially the ones classified in the “unknown-unknowns” or “Black Swan” categories. In the context of preparedness theory, the authors propose the adoption by shipping businesses, in parallel to any other risk approaches and tools, of the Assessment-reaction-Recovery-Conversion (ArRC) framework for managing risk and of relevant key recovery indicators which may assist in (a) increasing resilience through focusing the recovery planning on consequence-oriented, root-neutral reactions and (b) in promoting a “bounce-back-better” frame of mind and action plan, contributing to faster and easier recovery after a shock of any type. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-90d5c6fe5e4343a88758cd253ec2500b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-90d5c6fe5e4343a88758cd253ec2500b2025-01-24T13:36:50ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122025-01-011319310.3390/jmse13010093A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing UncertaintyHelen Thanopoulou0Siri Pettersen Strandenes1Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport, University of the Aegean, 82132 Chios, GreeceDepartment of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics, 5045 Bergen, NorwayThe 2011 Fukushima disaster and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic are two major 21st century events that were least expected while being highly disruptive, having an immediate as well as longer-term impact on shipping operations. However, while pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon of the “known-knowns” type, the combination of phenomena which led to Fukushima had no assigned probability; hence, no preparedness was in place, as this was practically a unique occurrence in shipping. Considering significant shipping incidents of various less or more uncommon etiologies, such as the capsizing of vessels, missile attacks on merchant ships or vessel-onto-bridge collisions, this conceptual paper puts forward a consequence-based approach for assessing and managing shocks in the maritime domain, especially the ones classified in the “unknown-unknowns” or “Black Swan” categories. In the context of preparedness theory, the authors propose the adoption by shipping businesses, in parallel to any other risk approaches and tools, of the Assessment-reaction-Recovery-Conversion (ArRC) framework for managing risk and of relevant key recovery indicators which may assist in (a) increasing resilience through focusing the recovery planning on consequence-oriented, root-neutral reactions and (b) in promoting a “bounce-back-better” frame of mind and action plan, contributing to faster and easier recovery after a shock of any type.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/93shipping risksrisk managementdecision analysisexogenous shocksconsequence-oriented decisions |
| spellingShingle | Helen Thanopoulou Siri Pettersen Strandenes A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty Journal of Marine Science and Engineering shipping risks risk management decision analysis exogenous shocks consequence-oriented decisions |
| title | A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty |
| title_full | A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty |
| title_short | A Consequence-Based Response Framework for More Resilient Shipping Amidst Growing Uncertainty |
| title_sort | consequence based response framework for more resilient shipping amidst growing uncertainty |
| topic | shipping risks risk management decision analysis exogenous shocks consequence-oriented decisions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/93 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT helenthanopoulou aconsequencebasedresponseframeworkformoreresilientshippingamidstgrowinguncertainty AT siripettersenstrandenes aconsequencebasedresponseframeworkformoreresilientshippingamidstgrowinguncertainty AT helenthanopoulou consequencebasedresponseframeworkformoreresilientshippingamidstgrowinguncertainty AT siripettersenstrandenes consequencebasedresponseframeworkformoreresilientshippingamidstgrowinguncertainty |