How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia
Abstract In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a su...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
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Sciendo
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Wirtschaftsdienst |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3152-1 |
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| _version_ | 1832569812222476288 |
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| author | Tom Krebs |
| author_facet | Tom Krebs |
| author_sort | Tom Krebs |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8f99563cdcb347718f3fef51f4222f88 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1613-978X |
| language | deu |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Sciendo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wirtschaftsdienst |
| spelling | doaj-art-8f99563cdcb347718f3fef51f4222f882025-02-02T19:42:05ZdeuSciendoWirtschaftsdienst1613-978X2022-04-01102425625810.1007/s10273-022-3152-1How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from RussiaTom Krebs0Abteilung Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität MannheimAbstract In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3152-1 |
| spellingShingle | Tom Krebs How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia Wirtschaftsdienst |
| title | How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia |
| title_full | How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia |
| title_fullStr | How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia |
| title_full_unstemmed | How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia |
| title_short | How to Compute the Economic Impact of a Sudden Stop of Gas Imports from Russia |
| title_sort | how to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of gas imports from russia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3152-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tomkrebs howtocomputetheeconomicimpactofasuddenstopofgasimportsfromrussia |