Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BackgroundAsthma poses a significant public health burden in China, affecting millions with substantial incidence and mortality. Understanding the trends and future projections of asthma incidence and mortality is crucial for healthcare planning.MethodsWe analyzed asthma incidence and mortality data...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1529636/full |
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| author | Xi Chen Xi Chen Dandan Ma Hangyu Li Yilin Liu Guixing Xu Xinyu Deng Qi Li Junqi Li Hui Pan |
| author_facet | Xi Chen Xi Chen Dandan Ma Hangyu Li Yilin Liu Guixing Xu Xinyu Deng Qi Li Junqi Li Hui Pan |
| author_sort | Xi Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundAsthma poses a significant public health burden in China, affecting millions with substantial incidence and mortality. Understanding the trends and future projections of asthma incidence and mortality is crucial for healthcare planning.MethodsWe analyzed asthma incidence and mortality data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study from 1990 to 2021, calculated the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), meanwhile, employed Joinpoint regression model to assess the trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the effects of the age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality. Finally, future asthma trends for the next 25 years were predicted utilizing the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.ResultsOver the past three decades, the incidence rate declined in waves while the mortality declined steadily. The ASIR of asthma decreased from 524.81 to 364.17 and the ASMR declined from 5.82 to 1.47. ASIR and ASMR are consistently higher in males than females during this period. The effect attributable to age on incidence was higher for the younger age group while the mortality was higher for older. The period ratio rate of incidence and mortality declined with the calendar year, and the corrections between birth cohort and the risk of incidence and mortality were negative. Our projections indicate that the ASIR and ASMR will continue to decrease by 2046, with expected rates of 330 and 0.69, respectively. Instead, the absolute number of asthma incidence cases and deaths may increase to approximately 4.5 million and 80,000, respectively.ConclusionAlthough asthma incidence rates and mortality have generally declined in China, the burden remains significant, especially among vulnerable groups, with higher rates in males. Continuous monitoring and age-targeted interventions are essential. Future healthcare strategies must address the aging population to manage the projected increase in asthma cases and deaths. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8f63d366a12e49d2a4aca12549d47971 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-858X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-8f63d366a12e49d2a4aca12549d479712025-01-29T05:21:08ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Medicine2296-858X2025-01-011210.3389/fmed.2025.15296361529636Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Xi Chen0Xi Chen1Dandan Ma2Hangyu Li3Yilin Liu4Guixing Xu5Xinyu Deng6Qi Li7Junqi Li8Hui Pan9Department of Rehabilitation, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaHospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaAcupuncture and Tuina School, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Rehabilitation, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaBackgroundAsthma poses a significant public health burden in China, affecting millions with substantial incidence and mortality. Understanding the trends and future projections of asthma incidence and mortality is crucial for healthcare planning.MethodsWe analyzed asthma incidence and mortality data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study from 1990 to 2021, calculated the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), meanwhile, employed Joinpoint regression model to assess the trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the effects of the age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality. Finally, future asthma trends for the next 25 years were predicted utilizing the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.ResultsOver the past three decades, the incidence rate declined in waves while the mortality declined steadily. The ASIR of asthma decreased from 524.81 to 364.17 and the ASMR declined from 5.82 to 1.47. ASIR and ASMR are consistently higher in males than females during this period. The effect attributable to age on incidence was higher for the younger age group while the mortality was higher for older. The period ratio rate of incidence and mortality declined with the calendar year, and the corrections between birth cohort and the risk of incidence and mortality were negative. Our projections indicate that the ASIR and ASMR will continue to decrease by 2046, with expected rates of 330 and 0.69, respectively. Instead, the absolute number of asthma incidence cases and deaths may increase to approximately 4.5 million and 80,000, respectively.ConclusionAlthough asthma incidence rates and mortality have generally declined in China, the burden remains significant, especially among vulnerable groups, with higher rates in males. Continuous monitoring and age-targeted interventions are essential. Future healthcare strategies must address the aging population to manage the projected increase in asthma cases and deaths.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1529636/fulldisease burdenasthmapredictionage-standardized rateincidencemortality |
| spellingShingle | Xi Chen Xi Chen Dandan Ma Hangyu Li Yilin Liu Guixing Xu Xinyu Deng Qi Li Junqi Li Hui Pan Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Frontiers in Medicine disease burden asthma prediction age-standardized rate incidence mortality |
| title | Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in china an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | disease burden asthma prediction age-standardized rate incidence mortality |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1529636/full |
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