Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities
Wetlands are sensitive to drying climates but projecting future impacts is challenging. Grouping plant species by flooding tolerance simplifies hydrological response modelling, with changes in group representation along the hydrological gradient defining both distinct vegetation zones and transition...
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000925 |
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| author | David C. Deane Michelle T. Casanova Jason Nicol Justin D. Brookes |
| author_facet | David C. Deane Michelle T. Casanova Jason Nicol Justin D. Brookes |
| author_sort | David C. Deane |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wetlands are sensitive to drying climates but projecting future impacts is challenging. Grouping plant species by flooding tolerance simplifies hydrological response modelling, with changes in group representation along the hydrological gradient defining both distinct vegetation zones and transition thresholds between them. We test this approach, using the relative number of species adapted to terrestrial, amphibious, and submerged conditions (hydrological group richness, HGR) as an indicator of plant composition and observed water depth in the growing season as our hydrological predictor. Using published data to model HGR (n = 813 observations across 12 wetland complexes in temperate Australia), we inferred depth thresholds from transitions between terrestrial, amphibious and submerged groups and validated these thresholds using independent data collected from the same region over the preceding 5 years (n = 198, 23 wetland complexes). The model explained 0.72 of variation in HGR suggesting a strong predictive relationship with depth. Thresholds distinguishing submerged-terrestrial (median ± [95 % credible intervals] = 13 [7, 22] cm) and submerged-amphibious group transitions (62 [50, 72] cm) were modelled directly, but amphibious-terrestrial transitions were predicted (via extrapolation) to occur below ground (−8 [−18, −2] cm). Predictive performance between obligate wetland (amphibious and submerged) species was limited, suggesting factors other than hydrology were involved. However, predictions against terrestrial species were reasonable (Cohen’s kappa > 0.58), suggesting the approach can identify hydrological tipping points associated with wetland drying. Modelling critical hydrology-driven transitions between wetland and terrestrial plants will require data on shallow sub-surface saturation (e.g., within ∼30 cm) rather than inundation depth. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8f1dc910652e49d1953d6f5f39d452fc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-8f1dc910652e49d1953d6f5f39d452fc2025-01-30T05:13:50ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-02-01171113163Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communitiesDavid C. Deane0Michelle T. Casanova1Jason Nicol2Justin D. Brookes3Research Centre for Future Landscapes and Department of Ecological, Plant & Animal Sciences, La Trobe University Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding author at: Dept. of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia.Federation University Australia, Ballarat, AustraliaInland Waters and Catchment Ecology Program, South Australian Research and Development Institute, Aquatic Sciences, Henley Beach, South Australia, AustraliaWater Research Centre, Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, AustraliaWetlands are sensitive to drying climates but projecting future impacts is challenging. Grouping plant species by flooding tolerance simplifies hydrological response modelling, with changes in group representation along the hydrological gradient defining both distinct vegetation zones and transition thresholds between them. We test this approach, using the relative number of species adapted to terrestrial, amphibious, and submerged conditions (hydrological group richness, HGR) as an indicator of plant composition and observed water depth in the growing season as our hydrological predictor. Using published data to model HGR (n = 813 observations across 12 wetland complexes in temperate Australia), we inferred depth thresholds from transitions between terrestrial, amphibious and submerged groups and validated these thresholds using independent data collected from the same region over the preceding 5 years (n = 198, 23 wetland complexes). The model explained 0.72 of variation in HGR suggesting a strong predictive relationship with depth. Thresholds distinguishing submerged-terrestrial (median ± [95 % credible intervals] = 13 [7, 22] cm) and submerged-amphibious group transitions (62 [50, 72] cm) were modelled directly, but amphibious-terrestrial transitions were predicted (via extrapolation) to occur below ground (−8 [−18, −2] cm). Predictive performance between obligate wetland (amphibious and submerged) species was limited, suggesting factors other than hydrology were involved. However, predictions against terrestrial species were reasonable (Cohen’s kappa > 0.58), suggesting the approach can identify hydrological tipping points associated with wetland drying. Modelling critical hydrology-driven transitions between wetland and terrestrial plants will require data on shallow sub-surface saturation (e.g., within ∼30 cm) rather than inundation depth.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000925Climate changeGlobal changeHydrological nichePredictive modelSpecies richnessWater plant functional groups |
| spellingShingle | David C. Deane Michelle T. Casanova Jason Nicol Justin D. Brookes Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities Ecological Indicators Climate change Global change Hydrological niche Predictive model Species richness Water plant functional groups |
| title | Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities |
| title_full | Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities |
| title_fullStr | Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities |
| title_short | Modelling relative richness of flooding-response groups to predict hydrology-driven change in wetland plant communities |
| title_sort | modelling relative richness of flooding response groups to predict hydrology driven change in wetland plant communities |
| topic | Climate change Global change Hydrological niche Predictive model Species richness Water plant functional groups |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25000925 |
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