Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones

Abstract Arctic sea-ice extent has reduced by over 40% during late summer since 1979, and the day-to-day changes in sea ice extent have shifted to more negative values. Drivers of Arctic weather that cause large short-term changes are rarely predicted more than a week in advance. Here we investigate...

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Main Authors: Steven M. Cavallo, Madeline C. Frank, Cecilia M. Bitz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-01-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02022-9
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author Steven M. Cavallo
Madeline C. Frank
Cecilia M. Bitz
author_facet Steven M. Cavallo
Madeline C. Frank
Cecilia M. Bitz
author_sort Steven M. Cavallo
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Arctic sea-ice extent has reduced by over 40% during late summer since 1979, and the day-to-day changes in sea ice extent have shifted to more negative values. Drivers of Arctic weather that cause large short-term changes are rarely predicted more than a week in advance. Here we investigate variability in changes in sea ice extent for periods of less than 18 days and their association to Arctic cyclones and tropopause polar vortices. We find that these very rapid sea ice loss events are substantial year-round and have increased over the last 30 years in June-August due to thinning sea ice that is more susceptible to forcings from ocean waves and low-level atmospheric wind. These events occur in regions of enhanced near-surface level pressure gradients between synoptic-scale high and low pressure systems over regions of relatively thin sea ice, and are preceded by tropopause polar vortices.
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spelling doaj-art-8eb2b2bffa6f41ecae618a71b101dd3a2025-01-26T12:53:58ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-01-01611910.1038/s43247-025-02022-9Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclonesSteven M. Cavallo0Madeline C. Frank1Cecilia M. Bitz2School of Meteorology, University of OklahomaSchool of Meteorology, University of OklahomaDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of WashingtonAbstract Arctic sea-ice extent has reduced by over 40% during late summer since 1979, and the day-to-day changes in sea ice extent have shifted to more negative values. Drivers of Arctic weather that cause large short-term changes are rarely predicted more than a week in advance. Here we investigate variability in changes in sea ice extent for periods of less than 18 days and their association to Arctic cyclones and tropopause polar vortices. We find that these very rapid sea ice loss events are substantial year-round and have increased over the last 30 years in June-August due to thinning sea ice that is more susceptible to forcings from ocean waves and low-level atmospheric wind. These events occur in regions of enhanced near-surface level pressure gradients between synoptic-scale high and low pressure systems over regions of relatively thin sea ice, and are preceded by tropopause polar vortices.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02022-9
spellingShingle Steven M. Cavallo
Madeline C. Frank
Cecilia M. Bitz
Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
Communications Earth & Environment
title Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
title_full Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
title_fullStr Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
title_full_unstemmed Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
title_short Sea ice loss in association with Arctic cyclones
title_sort sea ice loss in association with arctic cyclones
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02022-9
work_keys_str_mv AT stevenmcavallo seaicelossinassociationwitharcticcyclones
AT madelinecfrank seaicelossinassociationwitharcticcyclones
AT ceciliambitz seaicelossinassociationwitharcticcyclones