Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction
Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction whic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2011-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/246286 |
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| author | Nam Do Hoai Keiko Udo Akira Mano |
| author_facet | Nam Do Hoai Keiko Udo Akira Mano |
| author_sort | Nam Do Hoai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model) for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8cd7e3cb62c34d5aa9c3acdc80a56ad0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-757X 1687-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2011-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-8cd7e3cb62c34d5aa9c3acdc80a56ad02025-02-03T00:59:50ZengWileyJournal of Applied Mathematics1110-757X1687-00422011-01-01201110.1155/2011/246286246286Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood PredictionNam Do Hoai0Keiko Udo1Akira Mano2Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-11, Sendai 890-8579, JapanDisaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-11, Sendai 890-8579, JapanDisaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-11, Sendai 890-8579, JapanDownscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model) for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/246286 |
| spellingShingle | Nam Do Hoai Keiko Udo Akira Mano Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| title | Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction |
| title_full | Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction |
| title_fullStr | Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction |
| title_short | Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction |
| title_sort | downscaling global weather forecast outputs using ann for flood prediction |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/246286 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT namdohoai downscalingglobalweatherforecastoutputsusingannforfloodprediction AT keikoudo downscalingglobalweatherforecastoutputsusingannforfloodprediction AT akiramano downscalingglobalweatherforecastoutputsusingannforfloodprediction |