The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers
Abstract Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global‐scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the lim...
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004334 |
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| author | Andrina Gincheva Juli G. Pausas Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez Joaquín Bedia Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano John T. Abatzoglou Josep A. Sánchez‐Espigares Emilio Chuvieco Sonia Jerez Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo Marco Turco |
| author_facet | Andrina Gincheva Juli G. Pausas Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez Joaquín Bedia Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano John T. Abatzoglou Josep A. Sánchez‐Espigares Emilio Chuvieco Sonia Jerez Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo Marco Turco |
| author_sort | Andrina Gincheva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global‐scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year‐to‐year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same‐season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (∼77%) of the world's burnable regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8cd454aef0fc4466b6af4221ff57e68e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-8cd454aef0fc4466b6af4221ff57e68e2025-01-29T07:58:52ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-07-01127n/an/a10.1029/2023EF004334The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic DriversAndrina Gincheva0Juli G. Pausas1Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez2Joaquín Bedia3Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano4John T. Abatzoglou5Josep A. Sánchez‐Espigares6Emilio Chuvieco7Sonia Jerez8Antonello Provenzale9Ricardo M. Trigo10Marco Turco11Department of Physics Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum University of Murcia Murcia SpainCentro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CIDE, CSIC‐UV‐GVA), Spanish National Research Council Valencia SpainDepartment of Physics Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum University of Murcia Murcia SpainDepartamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Unidad Asociada al CSIC Santander SpainInstituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE‐CSIC) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Zaragoza SpainManagement of Complex Systems University of California Merced CA USADepartment of Statistics and Operations Research Polytechnic University of Catalonia Barcelona SpainDepartment of Geology, Geography and the Environment Universidad de Alcalá Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group Alcalá de Henares SpainDepartment of Physics Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum University of Murcia Murcia SpainInstitute of Geosciences and Earth Resources National Research Council Pisa ItalyFaculdade de Ciências Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) Universidade de Lisboa Lisboa PortugalDepartment of Physics Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum University of Murcia Murcia SpainAbstract Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global‐scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year‐to‐year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same‐season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (∼77%) of the world's burnable regions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004334climate‐fireburned area |
| spellingShingle | Andrina Gincheva Juli G. Pausas Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez Joaquín Bedia Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano John T. Abatzoglou Josep A. Sánchez‐Espigares Emilio Chuvieco Sonia Jerez Antonello Provenzale Ricardo M. Trigo Marco Turco The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers Earth's Future climate‐fire burned area |
| title | The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers |
| title_full | The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers |
| title_fullStr | The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers |
| title_short | The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers |
| title_sort | interannual variability of global burned area is mostly explained by climatic drivers |
| topic | climate‐fire burned area |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004334 |
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