Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model
Herring and mackerel are two of the most important pillars of Scottish fisheries. In recent years, global warming has caused a gradual rise in ocean temperatures. In order to survive and reproduce, herring and mackerel populations will migrate. This will have a huge impact on Scotland’s fisheries. T...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5553935 |
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| _version_ | 1850212086545645568 |
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| author | Feng Xu Yu-Ang Du Hong Chen Jia-Ming Zhu |
| author_facet | Feng Xu Yu-Ang Du Hong Chen Jia-Ming Zhu |
| author_sort | Feng Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Herring and mackerel are two of the most important pillars of Scottish fisheries. In recent years, global warming has caused a gradual rise in ocean temperatures. In order to survive and reproduce, herring and mackerel populations will migrate. This will have a huge impact on Scotland’s fisheries. Therefore, we need to predict the relocation of fish stocks in advance, make timely adjustments to the fishing range, and minimize the loss of the fishing industry. In this article, we subdivide the research target sea area into 39 regions, establish the optimal SARIMA model for each region based on the collected seawater temperature time series data, and take region 13 and region 15 as examples to fit the ARIMA (3, 3, 1) (1, 2, 1) and ARIMA (2, 3, 1) (0, 2, 1) models with a period of 12. The results show that the SARIMA model fits well in all regions and predicts the temperature changes in the studied sea area from 2021 to 2050. Finally, according to the predicted sea temperature in different periods, the migration position of the fish school is predicted. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8b22b638d8b44b0995f3ccd75d5fb8ee |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-8b22b638d8b44b0995f3ccd75d5fb8ee2025-08-20T02:09:25ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262021-01-01202110.1155/2021/55539355553935Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA ModelFeng Xu0Yu-Ang Du1Hong Chen2Jia-Ming Zhu3School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu 233030, ChinaSchool of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu 233030, ChinaSchool of Languages and Media, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, ChinaSchool of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu 233030, ChinaHerring and mackerel are two of the most important pillars of Scottish fisheries. In recent years, global warming has caused a gradual rise in ocean temperatures. In order to survive and reproduce, herring and mackerel populations will migrate. This will have a huge impact on Scotland’s fisheries. Therefore, we need to predict the relocation of fish stocks in advance, make timely adjustments to the fishing range, and minimize the loss of the fishing industry. In this article, we subdivide the research target sea area into 39 regions, establish the optimal SARIMA model for each region based on the collected seawater temperature time series data, and take region 13 and region 15 as examples to fit the ARIMA (3, 3, 1) (1, 2, 1) and ARIMA (2, 3, 1) (0, 2, 1) models with a period of 12. The results show that the SARIMA model fits well in all regions and predicts the temperature changes in the studied sea area from 2021 to 2050. Finally, according to the predicted sea temperature in different periods, the migration position of the fish school is predicted.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5553935 |
| spellingShingle | Feng Xu Yu-Ang Du Hong Chen Jia-Ming Zhu Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model Complexity |
| title | Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model |
| title_full | Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model |
| title_short | Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model |
| title_sort | prediction of fish migration caused by ocean warming based on sarima model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5553935 |
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