Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities
Biological and psychological theories suggest complex impacts of heat on aggression and violence. Most previous studies considered temporal intervals of months to years and assumed linear associations. Evidence is needed on daily impacts of temperature on crime, applying non-linear models across dif...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environment International |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041202400833X |
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| author | Seulkee Heo Hayon Michelle Choi Jesse D. Berman Michelle L. Bell |
| author_facet | Seulkee Heo Hayon Michelle Choi Jesse D. Berman Michelle L. Bell |
| author_sort | Seulkee Heo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Biological and psychological theories suggest complex impacts of heat on aggression and violence. Most previous studies considered temporal intervals of months to years and assumed linear associations. Evidence is needed on daily impacts of temperature on crime, applying non-linear models across different locations. This observational study examined non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (May–September) and violent crime in 44 cities across 33 US states, 2005–2022. We calculated city-specific average temperature for the event day and previous day (lag0–1) and daily temperature anomalies (deviation from 1985 to 2010 average) using PRISM data. The Uniform Crime Reporting Program data were used to calculate daily city-specific number of violent crimes (n = 2,447,458 incidents). Generalized additive modeling was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) of violent crime. We identified three distinctive shapes (J-shaped, inverted J-shaped, linear) for relationships. The inverted J-shaped curve, indicating higher crime rates at high temperatures below extremely hot temperatures, was most predominant (26 cities). Across all cities, violent crime was 1.03 times higher at high compared to moderate temperatures (90th vs. 50th percentiles) (RR 1.03, 95 % CI: 1.02–1.04). Violent crime was also higher at moderate compared to cold temperatures (50th vs. 10th percentiles) [RR 1.04 (95 % CI: 1.03–1.06)], whereas risk did not differ between extremely high and hot temperature (99th vs. 90th percentiles). Risk during hot days versus moderate temperature days was significantly lower for cities with lower latitude, higher median temperature, higher urban greenspace, and higher percentage of occupied housing units with air conditioners. Risk was higher in cities with 90th percentile temperature anomalies that deviated from the historical temperature record, suggesting implications of climate change on heat-related violence. High daily temperatures are associated with violent crime with differences across locations. Disparities in risks by city-level social and environmental characteristics have implications for climate change strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a3c58ae612f4945a8279622377bec2a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a3c58ae612f4945a8279622377bec2a2025-01-24T04:44:12ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202025-01-01195109246Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States citiesSeulkee Heo0Hayon Michelle Choi1Jesse D. Berman2Michelle L. Bell3School of the Environment, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA; Corresponding author at: 195 Prospect St Room 217, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.School of the Environment, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USADivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 420 Delaware St, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USASchool of the Environment, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA; Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, 145 Anam-ro, Anam-dong 3-ga, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, South KoreaBiological and psychological theories suggest complex impacts of heat on aggression and violence. Most previous studies considered temporal intervals of months to years and assumed linear associations. Evidence is needed on daily impacts of temperature on crime, applying non-linear models across different locations. This observational study examined non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (May–September) and violent crime in 44 cities across 33 US states, 2005–2022. We calculated city-specific average temperature for the event day and previous day (lag0–1) and daily temperature anomalies (deviation from 1985 to 2010 average) using PRISM data. The Uniform Crime Reporting Program data were used to calculate daily city-specific number of violent crimes (n = 2,447,458 incidents). Generalized additive modeling was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) of violent crime. We identified three distinctive shapes (J-shaped, inverted J-shaped, linear) for relationships. The inverted J-shaped curve, indicating higher crime rates at high temperatures below extremely hot temperatures, was most predominant (26 cities). Across all cities, violent crime was 1.03 times higher at high compared to moderate temperatures (90th vs. 50th percentiles) (RR 1.03, 95 % CI: 1.02–1.04). Violent crime was also higher at moderate compared to cold temperatures (50th vs. 10th percentiles) [RR 1.04 (95 % CI: 1.03–1.06)], whereas risk did not differ between extremely high and hot temperature (99th vs. 90th percentiles). Risk during hot days versus moderate temperature days was significantly lower for cities with lower latitude, higher median temperature, higher urban greenspace, and higher percentage of occupied housing units with air conditioners. Risk was higher in cities with 90th percentile temperature anomalies that deviated from the historical temperature record, suggesting implications of climate change on heat-related violence. High daily temperatures are associated with violent crime with differences across locations. Disparities in risks by city-level social and environmental characteristics have implications for climate change strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041202400833XViolenceCrimeTime-seriesTemperatureClimate |
| spellingShingle | Seulkee Heo Hayon Michelle Choi Jesse D. Berman Michelle L. Bell Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities Environment International Violence Crime Time-series Temperature Climate |
| title | Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities |
| title_full | Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities |
| title_fullStr | Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities |
| title_short | Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities |
| title_sort | temperature violent crime climate change and vulnerability factors in 44 united states cities |
| topic | Violence Crime Time-series Temperature Climate |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041202400833X |
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