Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change
Abstract Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and future changes of two typical compound events, i.e., sequential heatwave and prec...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832594915493675008 |
|---|---|
| author | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Lihua Tang Yuting Yang |
| author_facet | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Lihua Tang Yuting Yang |
| author_sort | Pei Fang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and future changes of two typical compound events, i.e., sequential heatwave and precipitation (SHP) and concurrent drought and heatwave (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global climate models. Results show substantial future increases in frequency, duration, and magnitude for both events, with the durations projected to double nationwide. The increases are more evident under higher emission scenarios, and could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during bias correction process. The projected changes will escalate socio-economic exposure across China’s major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao will face the highest risk. Our findings underscore the necessity of carbon emission controls, and call for adaptive measures to mitigate the threats induced by rising compound hazards in a changing climate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-892124653717474f9c5679363358b844 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-892124653717474f9c5679363358b8442025-01-19T12:16:16ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-018111010.1038/s41612-025-00910-7Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate changePei Fang0Taihua Wang1Dawen Yang2Lihua Tang3Yuting Yang4State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityAbstract Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and future changes of two typical compound events, i.e., sequential heatwave and precipitation (SHP) and concurrent drought and heatwave (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global climate models. Results show substantial future increases in frequency, duration, and magnitude for both events, with the durations projected to double nationwide. The increases are more evident under higher emission scenarios, and could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during bias correction process. The projected changes will escalate socio-economic exposure across China’s major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao will face the highest risk. Our findings underscore the necessity of carbon emission controls, and call for adaptive measures to mitigate the threats induced by rising compound hazards in a changing climate.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7 |
| spellingShingle | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Lihua Tang Yuting Yang Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change |
| title_full | Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change |
| title_fullStr | Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change |
| title_short | Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change |
| title_sort | substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio economic exposure across china under future climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT peifang substantialincreasesincompoundclimateextremesandassociatedsocioeconomicexposureacrosschinaunderfutureclimatechange AT taihuawang substantialincreasesincompoundclimateextremesandassociatedsocioeconomicexposureacrosschinaunderfutureclimatechange AT dawenyang substantialincreasesincompoundclimateextremesandassociatedsocioeconomicexposureacrosschinaunderfutureclimatechange AT lihuatang substantialincreasesincompoundclimateextremesandassociatedsocioeconomicexposureacrosschinaunderfutureclimatechange AT yutingyang substantialincreasesincompoundclimateextremesandassociatedsocioeconomicexposureacrosschinaunderfutureclimatechange |