Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050
Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is a dynamic analysis of oil and gas exports and sales income in 2050. A dynamic system is needed to forecast the export and sales of oil in the future, which requires considering the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables affecting the main rese...
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| Format: | Article |
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Ayandegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon,
2024-09-01
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| Series: | تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات |
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| Online Access: | https://www.journal-dmor.ir/article_210509_7d0d3f452ab41448dc0c968f5b81e0e2.pdf |
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| author | Paria Samadi Parviznejad Ali Mohaghar |
| author_facet | Paria Samadi Parviznejad Ali Mohaghar |
| author_sort | Paria Samadi Parviznejad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is a dynamic analysis of oil and gas exports and sales income in 2050. A dynamic system is needed to forecast the export and sales of oil in the future, which requires considering the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables affecting the main research problem.Methodology: This paper is applied in terms of purpose, which uses dynamic system modeling to create the model.Findings: Two positive causal loops of oil and gas sales growth and oil and gas field capacity utilization growth, and three negative causal loops of capacity limitations in oil and gas fields, limitations in oil and gas field capacity utilization, and the third was created with the limitation of access to oil resources. Also, three optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios were simulated in the dynamic system model. In the first scenario, the simulation was performed based on the changes in the oil price parameter in the future. In this scenario, oil and gas exports grew by 38%. In the second scenario, the income from exports showed an eight-fold growth optimistically. Finally, in the pessimistic scenario, the graphs showed that the values of the state variables remained constant. Finally, the validation was done using the analysis of different scenarios for the dynamic system model.Originality/Value: In this paper, in addition to the dynamic analysis of the factors influencing oil and gas industry variables, the time effects of these changes have also been considered. Previous studies have only used economic development variables to predict the future of the oil and gas industry. In this paper, the values of other variables, such as production capacity, existing reservoirs, and market risk, are considered as the main variables in the dynamic model for scenarios in the time horizon of 2050. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8675863e96074b3386637c1389c1987b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2538-5097 2676-6159 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | Ayandegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon, |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات |
| spelling | doaj-art-8675863e96074b3386637c1389c1987b2025-01-30T15:04:05ZfasAyandegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon,تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات2538-50972676-61592024-09-019356458310.22105/dmor.2024.455001.1844210509Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050Paria Samadi Parviznejad0Ali Mohaghar1Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Tabriz, Iran.Department of Management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Iran.Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is a dynamic analysis of oil and gas exports and sales income in 2050. A dynamic system is needed to forecast the export and sales of oil in the future, which requires considering the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables affecting the main research problem.Methodology: This paper is applied in terms of purpose, which uses dynamic system modeling to create the model.Findings: Two positive causal loops of oil and gas sales growth and oil and gas field capacity utilization growth, and three negative causal loops of capacity limitations in oil and gas fields, limitations in oil and gas field capacity utilization, and the third was created with the limitation of access to oil resources. Also, three optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios were simulated in the dynamic system model. In the first scenario, the simulation was performed based on the changes in the oil price parameter in the future. In this scenario, oil and gas exports grew by 38%. In the second scenario, the income from exports showed an eight-fold growth optimistically. Finally, in the pessimistic scenario, the graphs showed that the values of the state variables remained constant. Finally, the validation was done using the analysis of different scenarios for the dynamic system model.Originality/Value: In this paper, in addition to the dynamic analysis of the factors influencing oil and gas industry variables, the time effects of these changes have also been considered. Previous studies have only used economic development variables to predict the future of the oil and gas industry. In this paper, the values of other variables, such as production capacity, existing reservoirs, and market risk, are considered as the main variables in the dynamic model for scenarios in the time horizon of 2050.https://www.journal-dmor.ir/article_210509_7d0d3f452ab41448dc0c968f5b81e0e2.pdfdynamic model of oil and gas industryoil and gas export forecastoil and gas sales scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Paria Samadi Parviznejad Ali Mohaghar Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات dynamic model of oil and gas industry oil and gas export forecast oil and gas sales scenarios |
| title | Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| title_full | Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| title_short | Dynamic analysis of Iran's oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| title_sort | dynamic analysis of iran s oil and gas exports and sales revenue in the time horizon of 2050 |
| topic | dynamic model of oil and gas industry oil and gas export forecast oil and gas sales scenarios |
| url | https://www.journal-dmor.ir/article_210509_7d0d3f452ab41448dc0c968f5b81e0e2.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pariasamadiparviznejad dynamicanalysisofiransoilandgasexportsandsalesrevenueinthetimehorizonof2050 AT alimohaghar dynamicanalysisofiransoilandgasexportsandsalesrevenueinthetimehorizonof2050 |