Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect
Purpose – Drought is the primary disaster that negatively impacts agricultural and animal husbandry production. It can lead to crop reduction and even pose a threat to human survival in environmentally sensitive areas of China (ESAC). However, the phases and periodicity of drought changes in the ESA...
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Emerald Publishing
2024-10-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
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| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0144/full/pdf |
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| author | Yang Li Zhicheng Zheng Yaochen Qin Haifeng Tian Zhixiang Xie Peijun Rong |
| author_facet | Yang Li Zhicheng Zheng Yaochen Qin Haifeng Tian Zhixiang Xie Peijun Rong |
| author_sort | Yang Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – Drought is the primary disaster that negatively impacts agricultural and animal husbandry production. It can lead to crop reduction and even pose a threat to human survival in environmentally sensitive areas of China (ESAC). However, the phases and periodicity of drought changes in the ESAC remain largely unknown. Thus, this paper aims to identify the periodic characteristics of meteorological drought changes. Design/methodology/approach – The potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman–Monteith formula recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, whereas the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) of drought was simulated by coupling precipitation data. Subsequently, the Bernaola-Galvan segmentation algorithm was proposed to divide the periods of drought change and the newly developed extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition to analyze the periodic drought patterns. Findings – The findings reveal a significant increase in SPEI in the ESAC, with the rate of decline in drought events higher in the ESAC than in China, indicating a more pronounced wetting trend in the study area. Spatially, the northeast region showed an evident drying trend, whereas the southwest region showed a wetting trend. Two abrupt changes in the drought pattern were observed during the study period, namely, in 1965 and 1983. The spatial instability of moderate or severe drought frequency and intensity on a seasonal scale was more consistent during 1966–1983 and 1984–2018, compared to 1961–1965. Drought variation was predominantly influenced by interannual oscillations, with the periods of the components of intrinsic mode functions 1 (IMF1) and 2 (IMF2) being 3.1 and 7.3 years, respectively. Their cumulative variance contribution rate reached 70.22%. Research limitations/implications – The trend decomposition and periods of droughts in the study area were analyzed, which may provide an important scientific reference for water resource management and agricultural production activities in the ESAC. However, several problems remain unaddressed. First, the SPEI considers only precipitation and evapotranspiration, making it extremely sensitive to temperature increases. It also ignores the nonstationary nature of the hydrometeorological water process; therefore, it is prone to bias in drought detection and may overestimate the intensity and duration of droughts. Therefore, further studies on the application and comparison of various drought indices should be conducted to develop a more effective meteorological drought index. Second, the local water budget is mainly affected by surface evapotranspiration and precipitation. Evapotranspiration is calculated by various methods that provide different results. Therefore, future studies need to explore both the advantages and disadvantages of various evapotranspiration calculation methods (e.g. Hargreaves, Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith) and their application scenarios. Third, this study focused on the temporal and spatial evolution and periodic characteristics of droughts, without considering the driving mechanisms behind them and their impact on the ecosystem. In future, it will be necessary to focus on a sensitivity analysis of drought indices with regard to climate change. Finally, although this study calculated the SPEI using meteorological data provided by China’s high-density observatory network, deviations and uncertainties were inevitable in the point-to-grid spatialization process. This shortcoming may be avoided by using satellite remote sensing data with high spatiotemporal resolution in the future, which can allow pixel-scale monitoring and simulation of meteorological drought evolution. Practical implications – Under the background of continuous global warming, the climate in arid and semiarid areas of China has shown a trend of warming and wetting. It means that the plant environment in this region is getting better. In the future, the project of afforestation and returning farmland to forest and grassland in this region can increase the planting proportion of water-loving tree species to obtain better ecological benefits. Meanwhile, this study found that in the relatively water-scarce regions of China, drought duration was dominated by interannual oscillations (3.1a and 7.3a). This suggests that governments and nongovernmental organizations in the region should pay attention to the short drought period in the ESAC when they carry out ecological restoration and protection projects such as the construction of forest reserves and high-quality farmland. Originality/value – The findings enhance the understanding of the phasic and periodic characteristics of drought changes in the ESAC. Future studies on the stress effects of drought on crop yield may consider these effects to better reflect the agricultural response to meteorological drought and thus effectively improve the tolerance of agricultural activities to drought events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-83fa9d91106d437b9819439a0f00e3a0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1756-8692 1756-8706 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-83fa9d91106d437b9819439a0f00e3a02025-02-04T04:57:17ZengEmerald PublishingInternational Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management1756-86921756-87062024-10-0117114717310.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0144Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effectYang Li0Zhicheng Zheng1Yaochen Qin2Haifeng Tian3Zhixiang Xie4Peijun Rong5Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, China and College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, China and College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, China and College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, China and College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, ChinaCollege of Tourism and Exhibition/Urban and Rural Coordinated Development Center, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou, ChinaPurpose – Drought is the primary disaster that negatively impacts agricultural and animal husbandry production. It can lead to crop reduction and even pose a threat to human survival in environmentally sensitive areas of China (ESAC). However, the phases and periodicity of drought changes in the ESAC remain largely unknown. Thus, this paper aims to identify the periodic characteristics of meteorological drought changes. Design/methodology/approach – The potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman–Monteith formula recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, whereas the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) of drought was simulated by coupling precipitation data. Subsequently, the Bernaola-Galvan segmentation algorithm was proposed to divide the periods of drought change and the newly developed extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition to analyze the periodic drought patterns. Findings – The findings reveal a significant increase in SPEI in the ESAC, with the rate of decline in drought events higher in the ESAC than in China, indicating a more pronounced wetting trend in the study area. Spatially, the northeast region showed an evident drying trend, whereas the southwest region showed a wetting trend. Two abrupt changes in the drought pattern were observed during the study period, namely, in 1965 and 1983. The spatial instability of moderate or severe drought frequency and intensity on a seasonal scale was more consistent during 1966–1983 and 1984–2018, compared to 1961–1965. Drought variation was predominantly influenced by interannual oscillations, with the periods of the components of intrinsic mode functions 1 (IMF1) and 2 (IMF2) being 3.1 and 7.3 years, respectively. Their cumulative variance contribution rate reached 70.22%. Research limitations/implications – The trend decomposition and periods of droughts in the study area were analyzed, which may provide an important scientific reference for water resource management and agricultural production activities in the ESAC. However, several problems remain unaddressed. First, the SPEI considers only precipitation and evapotranspiration, making it extremely sensitive to temperature increases. It also ignores the nonstationary nature of the hydrometeorological water process; therefore, it is prone to bias in drought detection and may overestimate the intensity and duration of droughts. Therefore, further studies on the application and comparison of various drought indices should be conducted to develop a more effective meteorological drought index. Second, the local water budget is mainly affected by surface evapotranspiration and precipitation. Evapotranspiration is calculated by various methods that provide different results. Therefore, future studies need to explore both the advantages and disadvantages of various evapotranspiration calculation methods (e.g. Hargreaves, Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith) and their application scenarios. Third, this study focused on the temporal and spatial evolution and periodic characteristics of droughts, without considering the driving mechanisms behind them and their impact on the ecosystem. In future, it will be necessary to focus on a sensitivity analysis of drought indices with regard to climate change. Finally, although this study calculated the SPEI using meteorological data provided by China’s high-density observatory network, deviations and uncertainties were inevitable in the point-to-grid spatialization process. This shortcoming may be avoided by using satellite remote sensing data with high spatiotemporal resolution in the future, which can allow pixel-scale monitoring and simulation of meteorological drought evolution. Practical implications – Under the background of continuous global warming, the climate in arid and semiarid areas of China has shown a trend of warming and wetting. It means that the plant environment in this region is getting better. In the future, the project of afforestation and returning farmland to forest and grassland in this region can increase the planting proportion of water-loving tree species to obtain better ecological benefits. Meanwhile, this study found that in the relatively water-scarce regions of China, drought duration was dominated by interannual oscillations (3.1a and 7.3a). This suggests that governments and nongovernmental organizations in the region should pay attention to the short drought period in the ESAC when they carry out ecological restoration and protection projects such as the construction of forest reserves and high-quality farmland. Originality/value – The findings enhance the understanding of the phasic and periodic characteristics of drought changes in the ESAC. Future studies on the stress effects of drought on crop yield may consider these effects to better reflect the agricultural response to meteorological drought and thus effectively improve the tolerance of agricultural activities to drought events.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0144/full/pdfStandardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexMeteorological droughtSpatiotemporal changePeriodicity |
| spellingShingle | Yang Li Zhicheng Zheng Yaochen Qin Haifeng Tian Zhixiang Xie Peijun Rong Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index Meteorological drought Spatiotemporal change Periodicity |
| title | Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| title_full | Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| title_fullStr | Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| title_full_unstemmed | Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| title_short | Phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| title_sort | phasic and periodic change of drought under greenhouse effect |
| topic | Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index Meteorological drought Spatiotemporal change Periodicity |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0144/full/pdf |
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