Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna
Droughts have always been one of the most dangerous hazards for civilizations, especially when they impact the headwaters of a watershed, as their effects can spread downstream. In this context, observed droughts (1981–2015) and projected droughts (2016–2100) were assessed in Candarave, the headwate...
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2024-12-01
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| author | Ana Cruz-Baltuano Raúl Huarahuara-Toma Arlette Silva-Borda Samuel Chucuya Pablo Franco-León Germán Huayna Lía Ramos-Fernández Edwin Pino-Vargas |
| author_facet | Ana Cruz-Baltuano Raúl Huarahuara-Toma Arlette Silva-Borda Samuel Chucuya Pablo Franco-León Germán Huayna Lía Ramos-Fernández Edwin Pino-Vargas |
| author_sort | Ana Cruz-Baltuano |
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| description | Droughts have always been one of the most dangerous hazards for civilizations, especially when they impact the headwaters of a watershed, as their effects can spread downstream. In this context, observed droughts (1981–2015) and projected droughts (2016–2100) were assessed in Candarave, the headwaters of the Locumba basin. Regarding observed droughts, SPI-3 and SPEI-3 detected seven extreme droughts (1983, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2010, 2011, and 2012), with the most intense occurring in 1992 and 1998. SPI-6 and SPEI-6 identified the same extreme drought events, highlighting 1992 as the most intense. Additionally, it was concluded that the VCI also detected the droughts identified by the SPEI; however, a more detailed analysis of its use is necessary due to the limited availability of suitable satellite images in the area. On the other hand, a high-resolution dataset of climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the SSP3-7.0 scenario was used to project future droughts. Of the models in that dataset, CanESM5, IPSL–CM6A–LR, and UKESM1–0–LL did not perform well in the study area. SPI and SPEI projected more than ten episodes of extreme drought, indicating that extreme droughts will become more frequent, severe, and intense in the last 30 years of this century. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-801c9969c784445e972eef4d8d4ed96f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-801c9969c784445e972eef4d8d4ed96f2025-01-24T13:21:42ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-12-011611810.3390/atmos16010018Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, TacnaAna Cruz-Baltuano0Raúl Huarahuara-Toma1Arlette Silva-Borda2Samuel Chucuya3Pablo Franco-León4Germán Huayna5Lía Ramos-Fernández6Edwin Pino-Vargas7Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruLaboratory of Ecological Processes, Research Group of Arid Zones, Deserts and Climate Change (ADERIZA), Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDepartament of Water Resources, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima 15024, PeruDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, PeruDroughts have always been one of the most dangerous hazards for civilizations, especially when they impact the headwaters of a watershed, as their effects can spread downstream. In this context, observed droughts (1981–2015) and projected droughts (2016–2100) were assessed in Candarave, the headwaters of the Locumba basin. Regarding observed droughts, SPI-3 and SPEI-3 detected seven extreme droughts (1983, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2010, 2011, and 2012), with the most intense occurring in 1992 and 1998. SPI-6 and SPEI-6 identified the same extreme drought events, highlighting 1992 as the most intense. Additionally, it was concluded that the VCI also detected the droughts identified by the SPEI; however, a more detailed analysis of its use is necessary due to the limited availability of suitable satellite images in the area. On the other hand, a high-resolution dataset of climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the SSP3-7.0 scenario was used to project future droughts. Of the models in that dataset, CanESM5, IPSL–CM6A–LR, and UKESM1–0–LL did not perform well in the study area. SPI and SPEI projected more than ten episodes of extreme drought, indicating that extreme droughts will become more frequent, severe, and intense in the last 30 years of this century.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/18droughtSPISPEIVCIsemiaridclimate projection |
| spellingShingle | Ana Cruz-Baltuano Raúl Huarahuara-Toma Arlette Silva-Borda Samuel Chucuya Pablo Franco-León Germán Huayna Lía Ramos-Fernández Edwin Pino-Vargas Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna Atmosphere drought SPI SPEI VCI semiarid climate projection |
| title | Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna |
| title_full | Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna |
| title_short | Assessment of Observed and Projected Extreme Droughts in Perú—Case Study: Candarave, Tacna |
| title_sort | assessment of observed and projected extreme droughts in peru case study candarave tacna |
| topic | drought SPI SPEI VCI semiarid climate projection |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/18 |
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