Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach
Mass vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in two southern states of India, namely Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, has reduced disease outbreaks significantly. The sporadic outbreaks reported now can be attributed in part to the recurring movement of sheep and goats between these contig...
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2024-12-01
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| author | Govindaraj Gurrappanaidu Naveen Kumar Gajalavarahalli Subbanna Francis Wanyoike Sirak Bahta Yeswanth Raghuram Reddy Dwaipayan Bardhan Balamurugan Vinayagamurthy Kennady Vijayalakshmy Rahman Habibur |
| author_facet | Govindaraj Gurrappanaidu Naveen Kumar Gajalavarahalli Subbanna Francis Wanyoike Sirak Bahta Yeswanth Raghuram Reddy Dwaipayan Bardhan Balamurugan Vinayagamurthy Kennady Vijayalakshmy Rahman Habibur |
| author_sort | Govindaraj Gurrappanaidu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mass vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in two southern states of India, namely Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, has reduced disease outbreaks significantly. The sporadic outbreaks reported now can be attributed in part to the recurring movement of sheep and goats between these contiguous states. This study assessed the present level of economic burden and impact of vaccination on the local system (one state), considering the exposure from the external system (neighboring state) using a system dynamic (SD) model. The SD model relies on interdependence, interaction, information feedback, and circular causality and captures potential feedback between disease control interventions and their impact on various epidemiological and economic outcomes. The data for parameterization of the model were collected through surveys, expert elicitation, and literature review. The sporadic outbreaks reported in recent years (<10 outbreaks/year during 2022) were due to continuous “mass vaccination” for more than a decade. During 2021–2022, the PPR incidence was less in both the states, with an estimated loss of USD 26.30 and USD 22.86 million in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, respectively. The SD model results showed a systemic increase in flock size and offtakes and a decline in the number of infected and death cases under high vaccination coverage (75% and 100% coverage) compared to the low-coverage scenario. Hence, the coordinated inter-state vaccination efforts offer better prospects, as efforts in one state have positive externalities in terms of fewer outbreaks in a neighboring state. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7f36f48149f54c37b421215bc288cd4c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj-art-7f36f48149f54c37b421215bc288cd4c2025-01-24T13:52:17ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152024-12-011712310.3390/v17010023Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model ApproachGovindaraj Gurrappanaidu0Naveen Kumar Gajalavarahalli Subbanna1Francis Wanyoike2Sirak Bahta3Yeswanth Raghuram Reddy4Dwaipayan Bardhan5Balamurugan Vinayagamurthy6Kennady Vijayalakshmy7Rahman Habibur8ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics, Post Box 6450, Yelahanka, Bengaluru 560064, IndiaICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics, Post Box 6450, Yelahanka, Bengaluru 560064, IndiaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Post Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, KenyaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Post Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, KenyaICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics, Post Box 6450, Yelahanka, Bengaluru 560064, IndiaICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Bareilly 243122, IndiaICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics, Post Box 6450, Yelahanka, Bengaluru 560064, IndiaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Block-C, First Floor, NASC Complex, CG Centre, DPS Marg, Pusa, New Delhi 110012, IndiaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Block-C, First Floor, NASC Complex, CG Centre, DPS Marg, Pusa, New Delhi 110012, IndiaMass vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in two southern states of India, namely Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, has reduced disease outbreaks significantly. The sporadic outbreaks reported now can be attributed in part to the recurring movement of sheep and goats between these contiguous states. This study assessed the present level of economic burden and impact of vaccination on the local system (one state), considering the exposure from the external system (neighboring state) using a system dynamic (SD) model. The SD model relies on interdependence, interaction, information feedback, and circular causality and captures potential feedback between disease control interventions and their impact on various epidemiological and economic outcomes. The data for parameterization of the model were collected through surveys, expert elicitation, and literature review. The sporadic outbreaks reported in recent years (<10 outbreaks/year during 2022) were due to continuous “mass vaccination” for more than a decade. During 2021–2022, the PPR incidence was less in both the states, with an estimated loss of USD 26.30 and USD 22.86 million in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, respectively. The SD model results showed a systemic increase in flock size and offtakes and a decline in the number of infected and death cases under high vaccination coverage (75% and 100% coverage) compared to the low-coverage scenario. Hence, the coordinated inter-state vaccination efforts offer better prospects, as efforts in one state have positive externalities in terms of fewer outbreaks in a neighboring state.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/1/23PPRvaccination impactSD modeling |
| spellingShingle | Govindaraj Gurrappanaidu Naveen Kumar Gajalavarahalli Subbanna Francis Wanyoike Sirak Bahta Yeswanth Raghuram Reddy Dwaipayan Bardhan Balamurugan Vinayagamurthy Kennady Vijayalakshmy Rahman Habibur Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach Viruses PPR vaccination impact SD modeling |
| title | Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach |
| title_full | Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach |
| title_short | Assessment of Vaccination Impact in PPR-Control Program Implemented in Southern States of India: A System Dynamics Model Approach |
| title_sort | assessment of vaccination impact in ppr control program implemented in southern states of india a system dynamics model approach |
| topic | PPR vaccination impact SD modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/1/23 |
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