Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
As the water source area for the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the upper Hanjiang basin is of central concern for future management of the country’s water resources. The upper Hanjiang is also one of the most flood-prone rivers in China. This paper explores the proc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2486928 |
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| author | Wei Yang Liping Zhang Lijie Shan Xinchi Chen Shaodan Chen |
| author_facet | Wei Yang Liping Zhang Lijie Shan Xinchi Chen Shaodan Chen |
| author_sort | Wei Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As the water source area for the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the upper Hanjiang basin is of central concern for future management of the country’s water resources. The upper Hanjiang is also one of the most flood-prone rivers in China. This paper explores the process of extreme floods by using multivariate analysis to characterize flood and precipitation event data in combination, for historical data and simulated data from global climate models. The results suggested that the generalized extreme value and Gamma models better simulated the extreme precipitation and flood volume sequence than the generalized Pareto model for the annual maximum series, while the generalized Pareto distribution model was the best-fit model for peaks over threshold series. For the two-dimensional joint distributions of precipitation and flood volume, the Frank Copula was preferred in simulation of the annual maximum flood series whereas the Gumbel Copula was the most appropriate function to simulate the points over threshold flood series. We concluded that, compared with the traditional univariate approach, multivariate statistical analysis produced flood estimates that were more physically based and statistically sound and carried lower risk for flood design purposes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7df953dff15d4e9daaf26694861c867d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-7df953dff15d4e9daaf26694861c867d2025-02-03T05:58:40ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172016-01-01201610.1155/2016/24869282486928Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion ProjectWei Yang0Liping Zhang1Lijie Shan2Xinchi Chen3Shaodan Chen4State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaAs the water source area for the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the upper Hanjiang basin is of central concern for future management of the country’s water resources. The upper Hanjiang is also one of the most flood-prone rivers in China. This paper explores the process of extreme floods by using multivariate analysis to characterize flood and precipitation event data in combination, for historical data and simulated data from global climate models. The results suggested that the generalized extreme value and Gamma models better simulated the extreme precipitation and flood volume sequence than the generalized Pareto model for the annual maximum series, while the generalized Pareto distribution model was the best-fit model for peaks over threshold series. For the two-dimensional joint distributions of precipitation and flood volume, the Frank Copula was preferred in simulation of the annual maximum flood series whereas the Gumbel Copula was the most appropriate function to simulate the points over threshold flood series. We concluded that, compared with the traditional univariate approach, multivariate statistical analysis produced flood estimates that were more physically based and statistically sound and carried lower risk for flood design purposes.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2486928 |
| spellingShingle | Wei Yang Liping Zhang Lijie Shan Xinchi Chen Shaodan Chen Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| title_full | Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| title_fullStr | Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| title_full_unstemmed | Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| title_short | Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| title_sort | response of extreme hydrological events to climate change in the water source area for the middle route of south to north water diversion project |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2486928 |
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