Projected Meteorological Drought in Mexico Under CMIP6 Scenarios: Insights into Future Trends and Severity
Meteorological droughts are a complex and recurring phenomenon in Mexico, posing significant challenges for water availability, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities. Furthermore, several worldwide studies highlight that the impacts of droughts may intensify due to the potential effects of clima...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/5/186 |
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| Summary: | Meteorological droughts are a complex and recurring phenomenon in Mexico, posing significant challenges for water availability, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities. Furthermore, several worldwide studies highlight that the impacts of droughts may intensify due to the potential effects of climate change. Using projections from global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study evaluates future trends in drought frequency and severity across the Mexican hydrological regions. We applied the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess meteorological drought indicators under two Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. Climate models show high variability in projected precipitation changes between the reference and future periods. The SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates the greatest decrease, with reductions of at least 5 to 10%, and even larger declines projected for hydrological regions along the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts, as well as the Yucatán Peninsula. Changes in drought indicators vary depending on the time horizon and scenario considered. For instance, projections for the period 2070–2099 under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5 suggest more frequent (three to four events) and prolonged (15 to 18 months) droughts in central and southern hydrological regions. These insights highlight the urgency of strengthening water management policies and adaptive strategies to mitigate the anticipated impacts of climate change on Mexico’s water resources. |
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| ISSN: | 2076-3263 |