Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management
Decision support systems are primary tools to meet EU targets to halve pesticide use, as they advise farmers to use chemical sprays only when weather conditions are conducive to plant pathogens. Although many alternative disease models are available from scientific literature, current decision suppo...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Smart Agricultural Technology |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772375525002485 |
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| author | Simone Bregaglio Eugenio Rossi Lorenzo Ascari Gabriele Mongiano Eleonora Del Cavallo Sofia Bajocco Luisa Maria Manici Antonio Gerardo Pepe Chiara Bassi Rocchina Tiso Fabio Pietrangeli Giovanna Cattaneo Camilla Nigro Marco Secondo Gerardi Simone Bussotti Angela Sanchioni Danilo Tognetti Mariangela Sandra Irene De Lillo Paolo Framarin Sandra Di Ferdinando Riccardo Bugiani |
| author_facet | Simone Bregaglio Eugenio Rossi Lorenzo Ascari Gabriele Mongiano Eleonora Del Cavallo Sofia Bajocco Luisa Maria Manici Antonio Gerardo Pepe Chiara Bassi Rocchina Tiso Fabio Pietrangeli Giovanna Cattaneo Camilla Nigro Marco Secondo Gerardi Simone Bussotti Angela Sanchioni Danilo Tognetti Mariangela Sandra Irene De Lillo Paolo Framarin Sandra Di Ferdinando Riccardo Bugiani |
| author_sort | Simone Bregaglio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Decision support systems are primary tools to meet EU targets to halve pesticide use, as they advise farmers to use chemical sprays only when weather conditions are conducive to plant pathogens. Although many alternative disease models are available from scientific literature, current decision support systems are often proprietary and based on individual modelling approaches. To overcome this limitation, we developed the octoPus, the first open-source modelling tool designed to enhance the control of primary infections of grapevine downy mildew. Eight disease models have been reimplemented from scientific articles (the ''tentacles''), and their outputs integrated with a grapevine phenology and susceptibility model (the ''eyes''). Simulated infections served as predictors in a Random Forest algorithm (''brain'') to compute an overall risk level. All model outputs have been prompted to a large language model (Llama), which has been used to generate user-supportive messages according to Integrated Pest Management principles (the ''mouth''). We evaluated the behavior of the eight disease models through gridded simulations across the whole Italian grapevine areas from 2001 to 2020. Reference data to calibrate grapevine phenology (RMSE = 9–10 days) and seasonal risk of downy mildew infection (RMSE ≈ 0.75) have been extracted from official plant protection bulletins at provincial level (NUTS-3). The disease models displayed significant differences in the number and dynamics of simulated infections, with two distinct patterns within the ensemble. However, they consistently identified a moisture and thermal north-south suitability gradient in Italy, accurately detecting grapevine seasons with low or high downy mildew pressure. The octoPus addresses a critical gap in the availability and transparency of decision support systems for extension services and farmers, who can freely use it to support plant protection strategies to control grapevine downy mildew. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-79c8a4e15c9b4d0f8dfa7c9dd2df132d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2772-3755 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Smart Agricultural Technology |
| spelling | doaj-art-79c8a4e15c9b4d0f8dfa7c9dd2df132d2025-08-20T03:08:21ZengElsevierSmart Agricultural Technology2772-37552025-08-011110101510.1016/j.atech.2025.101015Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest ManagementSimone Bregaglio0Eugenio Rossi1Lorenzo Ascari2Gabriele Mongiano3Eleonora Del Cavallo4Sofia Bajocco5Luisa Maria Manici6Antonio Gerardo Pepe7Chiara Bassi8Rocchina Tiso9Fabio Pietrangeli10Giovanna Cattaneo11Camilla Nigro12Marco Secondo Gerardi13Simone Bussotti14Angela Sanchioni15Danilo Tognetti16Mariangela Sandra17Irene De Lillo18Paolo Framarin19Sandra Di Ferdinando20Riccardo Bugiani21CREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, Italy; Corresponding author.Agri2000 NET, Castel Maggiore, I-40013, Bologna, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Plant Protection and Certification, SS 11 km 2500, I-13100, Vercelli, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, ItalyCREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, ItalyServizi Alle Imprese Agricole e Florovivaismo, CAAR (Centro Agrometeorologia Applicata Regionale), Laboratori Regionali Analisi Terreni-Produzioni Vegetali e Fitopatologico, I-19038 Sarzana SP, Liguria Region, ItalyPlant Protection Service, Emilia-Romagna Region, Via A. da Formigine n. 3, I-40129, Bologna BO, ItalyServizio Supporto Specialistico all’Agricoltura, Via Nazionale 37 Villanova di Cepagatti, I-65012, Pescara, ItalyRegione Lombardia, Plant Protection Service, I-20124, Milan, MI, ItalyLucana Agency for Development and Innovation in Agriculture, Basilicata Region, Via Annunziatella 64, I-75100, Matera, MT, ItalyLAORE Sardegna, Regional Agency for Agriculture Development, Via Caprera 8, I-09123, Cagliari, CA, ItalyFondazione Agrion, Via Falicetto 24, I-12030, Manta, CN, ItalyAMAP - Agenzia per l'innovazione nel settore agroalimentare e della pesca ''Marche Agricoltura Pesca'', I-60027, Osimo, ItalyAMAP - Agenzia per l'innovazione nel settore agroalimentare e della pesca ''Marche Agricoltura Pesca'', I-60027, Osimo, ItalyServizio fitosanitario e chimico, ricerca, sperimentazione e assistenza tecnica. Agenzia regionale per lo sviluppo rurale del Friuli-Venezia Giulia – ERSA, Via Sabbatini 5, I-33050, Pozzuolo del Friuli, UD, ItalyARPAV. Dipartimento Regionale per la Sicurezza del Territorio. U.O.C. Meteorologia e Climatologia, Veneto Region, Via Marconi 55, I-35037, Teolo, PD, ItalyRegione Veneto - Unità Organizzativa Fitosanitario, Viale dell'Agricoltura 1/A, I-37060, Buttapietra, VR, ItalyARSIAL – Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e l’Innovazione dell’Agricoltura del Lazio, Area Tutela risorse, Vigilanza, Qualità delle Produzioni, Via Rodolfo Lanciani 38, 00162, Roma, ItalyPlant Protection Service, Emilia-Romagna Region, Via A. da Formigine n. 3, I-40129, Bologna BO, ItalyDecision support systems are primary tools to meet EU targets to halve pesticide use, as they advise farmers to use chemical sprays only when weather conditions are conducive to plant pathogens. Although many alternative disease models are available from scientific literature, current decision support systems are often proprietary and based on individual modelling approaches. To overcome this limitation, we developed the octoPus, the first open-source modelling tool designed to enhance the control of primary infections of grapevine downy mildew. Eight disease models have been reimplemented from scientific articles (the ''tentacles''), and their outputs integrated with a grapevine phenology and susceptibility model (the ''eyes''). Simulated infections served as predictors in a Random Forest algorithm (''brain'') to compute an overall risk level. All model outputs have been prompted to a large language model (Llama), which has been used to generate user-supportive messages according to Integrated Pest Management principles (the ''mouth''). We evaluated the behavior of the eight disease models through gridded simulations across the whole Italian grapevine areas from 2001 to 2020. Reference data to calibrate grapevine phenology (RMSE = 9–10 days) and seasonal risk of downy mildew infection (RMSE ≈ 0.75) have been extracted from official plant protection bulletins at provincial level (NUTS-3). The disease models displayed significant differences in the number and dynamics of simulated infections, with two distinct patterns within the ensemble. However, they consistently identified a moisture and thermal north-south suitability gradient in Italy, accurately detecting grapevine seasons with low or high downy mildew pressure. The octoPus addresses a critical gap in the availability and transparency of decision support systems for extension services and farmers, who can freely use it to support plant protection strategies to control grapevine downy mildew.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772375525002485Downy mildewModel ensembleDecision support systemMultivariate analysisFungal diseases |
| spellingShingle | Simone Bregaglio Eugenio Rossi Lorenzo Ascari Gabriele Mongiano Eleonora Del Cavallo Sofia Bajocco Luisa Maria Manici Antonio Gerardo Pepe Chiara Bassi Rocchina Tiso Fabio Pietrangeli Giovanna Cattaneo Camilla Nigro Marco Secondo Gerardi Simone Bussotti Angela Sanchioni Danilo Tognetti Mariangela Sandra Irene De Lillo Paolo Framarin Sandra Di Ferdinando Riccardo Bugiani Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management Smart Agricultural Technology Downy mildew Model ensemble Decision support system Multivariate analysis Fungal diseases |
| title | Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management |
| title_full | Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management |
| title_fullStr | Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management |
| title_short | Releasing the octoPus, an open-source digital tool to promote Integrated Pest Management |
| title_sort | releasing the octopus an open source digital tool to promote integrated pest management |
| topic | Downy mildew Model ensemble Decision support system Multivariate analysis Fungal diseases |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772375525002485 |
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