Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia
Climate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating f...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000044 |
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| author | Max Mauerman Henny Osbahr Emily Black Daniel Osgood Grieve Chelwa Bernadette Mushinge |
| author_facet | Max Mauerman Henny Osbahr Emily Black Daniel Osgood Grieve Chelwa Bernadette Mushinge |
| author_sort | Max Mauerman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating farmer knowledge into robust drought impact assessments.Using a new dataset of 925 farmer focus groups in Zambia, we investigate whether farmers’ recollection can identify consequential drought events more consistently than crop yields, which are conventionally used for this purpose. Zambia, like many countries, has experienced structural changes in its crop production systems over the last 30 years. Staple crop yields are therefore a weak proxy for food insecurity without wider socio-economic and agricultural context. We posit that in settings like this, farmers’ knowledge can provide the missing context for what constitutes a meaningful climate shock.We conduct a statistical analysis of the dominant patterns of variability in farmers’ recollected drought years as compared to satellite rainfall. We find that farmers’ recall identifies meteorologically consistent patterns in shocks, going back 40 years. In contrast, conventional methods of regressing weather on maize yields to measure shocks would result in estimates that are biased and overconfident. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time at a national scale, that farmers’ knowledge of climate shocks is a uniquely reliable source of impact data. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-79adbde7f62648d09dbbc9286f53d9ab |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj-art-79adbde7f62648d09dbbc9286f53d9ab2025-01-30T05:14:46ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072025-04-0138100543Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in ZambiaMax Mauerman0Henny Osbahr1Emily Black2Daniel Osgood3Grieve Chelwa4Bernadette Mushinge5Department of International Development, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK; Columbia University Climate School, NY, USA; Corresponding author.Department of International Development, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UKDepartment of Meteorology, School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UKColumbia University Climate School, NY, USADepartment of Social Sciences, The Africa Institute, Sharjah, the United Arab EmiratesIndependent Researcher, Lusaka, ZambiaClimate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating farmer knowledge into robust drought impact assessments.Using a new dataset of 925 farmer focus groups in Zambia, we investigate whether farmers’ recollection can identify consequential drought events more consistently than crop yields, which are conventionally used for this purpose. Zambia, like many countries, has experienced structural changes in its crop production systems over the last 30 years. Staple crop yields are therefore a weak proxy for food insecurity without wider socio-economic and agricultural context. We posit that in settings like this, farmers’ knowledge can provide the missing context for what constitutes a meaningful climate shock.We conduct a statistical analysis of the dominant patterns of variability in farmers’ recollected drought years as compared to satellite rainfall. We find that farmers’ recall identifies meteorologically consistent patterns in shocks, going back 40 years. In contrast, conventional methods of regressing weather on maize yields to measure shocks would result in estimates that are biased and overconfident. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time at a national scale, that farmers’ knowledge of climate shocks is a uniquely reliable source of impact data.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000044AgricultureAdaptationAfricaRisk estimationParticipatory researchTraditional ecological knowledge |
| spellingShingle | Max Mauerman Henny Osbahr Emily Black Daniel Osgood Grieve Chelwa Bernadette Mushinge Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia Climate Services Agriculture Adaptation Africa Risk estimation Participatory research Traditional ecological knowledge |
| title | Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia |
| title_full | Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia |
| title_fullStr | Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia |
| title_short | Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia |
| title_sort | farmers knowledge improves identification of drought impacts a nationwide statistical analysis in zambia |
| topic | Agriculture Adaptation Africa Risk estimation Participatory research Traditional ecological knowledge |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000044 |
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