The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes

Abstract International trade conflicts continue to simmer in times of the coronavirus crisis. Most recently, in mid-May, the US government tightened export restrictions for suppliers to the Chinese technology company Huawei. Against the background of the dramatic slump in consumer demand for automob...

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Main Authors: Sebastian Dullien, Sabine Stephan, Thomas Theobald
Format: Article
Language:deu
Published: Sciendo 2020-07-01
Series:Wirtschaftsdienst
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2694-3
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author Sebastian Dullien
Sabine Stephan
Thomas Theobald
author_facet Sebastian Dullien
Sabine Stephan
Thomas Theobald
author_sort Sebastian Dullien
collection DOAJ
description Abstract International trade conflicts continue to simmer in times of the coronavirus crisis. Most recently, in mid-May, the US government tightened export restrictions for suppliers to the Chinese technology company Huawei. Against the background of the dramatic slump in consumer demand for automobiles, US President Donald Trump might revive his protectionist idea of tariffs on cars and car parts from the EU, escalating the transatlantic trade conflict. Economic policy simulations show that such an escalation has the potential to dampen the economic recovery in Germany after the pandemic shock. Fiscal rules limit the ability to counterbalance the macroeconomic impact of a trade war, putting Germany potentially at a relative disadvantage in this conflict.
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spelling doaj-art-7873d61a0e9645cd883ae9d58dbbbf8d2025-02-02T16:33:09ZdeuSciendoWirtschaftsdienst0043-62751613-978X2020-07-01100752453010.1007/s10273-020-2694-3The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It TakesSebastian Dullien0Sabine Stephan1Thomas Theobald2in der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK)in der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung: Ökonometrie, Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK)in der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung: Finanzmärkte und Konjunktur, Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK)Abstract International trade conflicts continue to simmer in times of the coronavirus crisis. Most recently, in mid-May, the US government tightened export restrictions for suppliers to the Chinese technology company Huawei. Against the background of the dramatic slump in consumer demand for automobiles, US President Donald Trump might revive his protectionist idea of tariffs on cars and car parts from the EU, escalating the transatlantic trade conflict. Economic policy simulations show that such an escalation has the potential to dampen the economic recovery in Germany after the pandemic shock. Fiscal rules limit the ability to counterbalance the macroeconomic impact of a trade war, putting Germany potentially at a relative disadvantage in this conflict.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2694-3
spellingShingle Sebastian Dullien
Sabine Stephan
Thomas Theobald
The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
Wirtschaftsdienst
title The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
title_full The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
title_fullStr The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
title_full_unstemmed The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
title_short The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
title_sort transatlantic trade conflict and the german economy it matters how long it takes
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-020-2694-3
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