Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units
This paper provides a model-based method for the forecast of the total number of currently COVID-19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available intensive care units in Italy. The predictions obtained—for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th—will be provided at a national...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5982784 |
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| author | Livio Fenga |
| author_facet | Livio Fenga |
| author_sort | Livio Fenga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper provides a model-based method for the forecast of the total number of currently COVID-19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available intensive care units in Italy. The predictions obtained—for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th—will be provided at a national as well as at a more disaggregated level, following a criterion based on the magnitude of the phenomenon. While those regions hit the most by the pandemic have been kept separated, those less affected regions have been aggregated into homogeneous macroareas. Results show that—within the forecast period considered (March 29th–April 7th)—all of the Italian regions will show a decreasing number of COVID-19 positive people. The same will be observed for the number of people who will need to be hospitalized in an intensive care unit. These estimates are valid under constancy of the government’s current containment policies. In this scenario, northern regions will remain the most affected ones, whereas no significant outbreaks are foreseen in the southern regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-755d161858394ab3b37360740b94bd59 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-952X 1687-9538 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| spelling | doaj-art-755d161858394ab3b37360740b94bd592025-02-03T01:06:16ZengWileyJournal of Probability and Statistics1687-952X1687-95382021-01-01202110.1155/2021/59827845982784Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care UnitsLivio Fenga0Italian National Institute of Statistics, ISTAT, Rome 00184, ItalyThis paper provides a model-based method for the forecast of the total number of currently COVID-19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available intensive care units in Italy. The predictions obtained—for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th—will be provided at a national as well as at a more disaggregated level, following a criterion based on the magnitude of the phenomenon. While those regions hit the most by the pandemic have been kept separated, those less affected regions have been aggregated into homogeneous macroareas. Results show that—within the forecast period considered (March 29th–April 7th)—all of the Italian regions will show a decreasing number of COVID-19 positive people. The same will be observed for the number of people who will need to be hospitalized in an intensive care unit. These estimates are valid under constancy of the government’s current containment policies. In this scenario, northern regions will remain the most affected ones, whereas no significant outbreaks are foreseen in the southern regions.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5982784 |
| spellingShingle | Livio Fenga Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| title | Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units |
| title_full | Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units |
| title_short | Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units |
| title_sort | forecasting the covid 19 diffusion in italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5982784 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT liviofenga forecastingthecovid19diffusioninitalyandtherelatedoccupancyofintensivecareunits |