Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains a significant challenge to the swine industry, resulting in substantial productivity and, consequently, economic losses. This study aimed to quantify the impact of PRRSV outbreaks in sow farms on nursery mortality using causal infer...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2025.1545034/full |
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| author | E. S. Magalhães D. Zhang C. A. A. Moura Annette O’Connor C. Wang C. Wang D. J. Holtkamp G. S. Silva D. C. L. Linhares |
| author_facet | E. S. Magalhães D. Zhang C. A. A. Moura Annette O’Connor C. Wang C. Wang D. J. Holtkamp G. S. Silva D. C. L. Linhares |
| author_sort | E. S. Magalhães |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains a significant challenge to the swine industry, resulting in substantial productivity and, consequently, economic losses. This study aimed to quantify the impact of PRRSV outbreaks in sow farms on nursery mortality using causal inference methods. The study design followed a retrospective observational approach, where PRRSV epidemic status in source sow farms was the exposure, and nursery mortality (percentage of dead pigs in the first 60 days post-weaning) was the outcome. Causal inference techniques were employed to estimate the effect of the exposure (PRRSV epidemic status) on the outcome (nursery mortality). Data from a Midwestern US swine production system comprising 2,592 lots of pigs, representing approximately 5 million pigs marketed between January 2021 and December 2022, were analyzed. A causal diagram was constructed to visualize the relationship between PRRSV epidemic exposure and nursery mortality, while controlling for potential confounding factors including season, average parity at farrow, and sow farm Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae status. Four analytical approaches were employed: univariate and multivariable regression models, propensity score matching, and a doubly robust method. The results indicated that PRRSV epidemic lots had higher nursery mortality compared to non-epidemic lots, regardless of the modeling approach used. The doubly robust method provided the most accurate estimates, offering lower mortality differences and narrower confidence intervals. This study demonstrated the application of causal inference methods on swine data to measure the impact of PRRSV on swine nursery mortality, which is an approach commonly used in other epidemiology areas but not well explored in veterinary epidemiology. The findings highlight the importance of employing causal inference models in veterinary epidemiology to improve the accuracy of disease impact assessments in field conditions, with potential applications in studying other pathogens or disease-related factors in livestock production. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-750aeb1d2f2b498ca34f3ed5b2d490c9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2297-1769 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-750aeb1d2f2b498ca34f3ed5b2d490c92025-08-20T02:19:44ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692025-04-011210.3389/fvets.2025.15450341545034Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methodsE. S. Magalhães0D. Zhang1C. A. A. Moura2Annette O’Connor3C. Wang4C. Wang5D. J. Holtkamp6G. S. Silva7D. C. L. Linhares8Department of Animal Science, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesIowa Select Farms, Iowa Falls, IA, United StatesDepartment of Large Animal Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United StatesDepartment of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesDepartment of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United StatesPorcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains a significant challenge to the swine industry, resulting in substantial productivity and, consequently, economic losses. This study aimed to quantify the impact of PRRSV outbreaks in sow farms on nursery mortality using causal inference methods. The study design followed a retrospective observational approach, where PRRSV epidemic status in source sow farms was the exposure, and nursery mortality (percentage of dead pigs in the first 60 days post-weaning) was the outcome. Causal inference techniques were employed to estimate the effect of the exposure (PRRSV epidemic status) on the outcome (nursery mortality). Data from a Midwestern US swine production system comprising 2,592 lots of pigs, representing approximately 5 million pigs marketed between January 2021 and December 2022, were analyzed. A causal diagram was constructed to visualize the relationship between PRRSV epidemic exposure and nursery mortality, while controlling for potential confounding factors including season, average parity at farrow, and sow farm Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae status. Four analytical approaches were employed: univariate and multivariable regression models, propensity score matching, and a doubly robust method. The results indicated that PRRSV epidemic lots had higher nursery mortality compared to non-epidemic lots, regardless of the modeling approach used. The doubly robust method provided the most accurate estimates, offering lower mortality differences and narrower confidence intervals. This study demonstrated the application of causal inference methods on swine data to measure the impact of PRRSV on swine nursery mortality, which is an approach commonly used in other epidemiology areas but not well explored in veterinary epidemiology. The findings highlight the importance of employing causal inference models in veterinary epidemiology to improve the accuracy of disease impact assessments in field conditions, with potential applications in studying other pathogens or disease-related factors in livestock production.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2025.1545034/fullswinebreeding herdPRRS outbreakcausal inferencenursery mortality |
| spellingShingle | E. S. Magalhães D. Zhang C. A. A. Moura Annette O’Connor C. Wang C. Wang D. J. Holtkamp G. S. Silva D. C. L. Linhares Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods Frontiers in Veterinary Science swine breeding herd PRRS outbreak causal inference nursery mortality |
| title | Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| title_full | Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| title_fullStr | Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| title_short | Measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with PRRS virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| title_sort | measuring the impact of sow farm outbreaks with prrs virus on the downstream mortality using causal inference methods |
| topic | swine breeding herd PRRS outbreak causal inference nursery mortality |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2025.1545034/full |
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