Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma
ObjectiveThe purpose of this research is to establish a prognostic nomogram for patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA).MethodsWe obtained clinical data from 2401 patients diagnosed with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) between 2010 and 2020 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1478836/full |
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| author | Jiangfeng Hu Yuping Shi Lihua Jin Suhong Yi Jinsuo Chen Dadong Wan Weixin Ye Jingnan Chen Yajing Zhang Yang Jiang Bensong Duan Yuwei Dong |
| author_facet | Jiangfeng Hu Yuping Shi Lihua Jin Suhong Yi Jinsuo Chen Dadong Wan Weixin Ye Jingnan Chen Yajing Zhang Yang Jiang Bensong Duan Yuwei Dong |
| author_sort | Jiangfeng Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectiveThe purpose of this research is to establish a prognostic nomogram for patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA).MethodsWe obtained clinical data from 2401 patients diagnosed with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) between 2010 and 2020 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. These patients were randomly assigned to either the training or validation group in a ratio of 6:4. 228 patients were enrolled from 9 hospitals in China as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multifactorial Cox regression analyses were conducted to ascertain prognostic factors and prognostic nomograms were developed utilizing LASSO logistic regression analysis. We used the calibration curve, and area under the curve to validate the nomograms. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the model and its clinical applicability.ResultsThe findings demonstrated that Grade, M stages, Surgery, and Chemotherapy emerged as autonomous prognostic factors for the survival of individuals with dCCA. The developed nomograms exhibited satisfactory accuracy in forecasting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probabilities. Furthermore, the calibration curves indicated a strong concordance between the anticipated and observed outcomes. The AUC of the nomogram for 1-year, 3-year, 5 year overall survival (OS) predication were 0.809 (95%CI 78.5-83.3), 0.79 (95%CI 75.8-82.2) and 0.761 ((95%CI 72.3-80.0) in the training cohort, 0.79 (95%CI 75.9-82.0), 0.73 (95%CI 68.5-77.5), and 0.732(95%CI 68.0-78.3) in internal test cohort, 0.862 (95%CI 81.7-90.7),0.83 (95%CI 76.4-89.6),and 0.819(95%CI 74.6-89.2) in external test cohort.ConclusionThe nomograms that have been suggested demonstrate strong predictive capability. These tools can assist medical professionals in assessing the prognosis of patients with dCCA and in devising more accurate treatment strategies for them. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-75036fd4b0bf41429db0be8e8c1acddd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-75036fd4b0bf41429db0be8e8c1acddd2025-01-27T05:14:35ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2025-01-011510.3389/fonc.2025.14788361478836Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinomaJiangfeng Hu0Yuping Shi1Lihua Jin2Suhong Yi3Jinsuo Chen4Dadong Wan5Weixin Ye6Jingnan Chen7Yajing Zhang8Yang Jiang9Bensong Duan10Yuwei Dong11Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Xinyu People’s Hospital, Xinyu, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, Jiangsu, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Fuyang Women & Children’s Hospital, Fuyang, Anhui, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Xining Second People’s Hospital, Xining, Qinghai, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaEndoscopy Center, Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaObjectiveThe purpose of this research is to establish a prognostic nomogram for patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA).MethodsWe obtained clinical data from 2401 patients diagnosed with distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) between 2010 and 2020 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. These patients were randomly assigned to either the training or validation group in a ratio of 6:4. 228 patients were enrolled from 9 hospitals in China as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multifactorial Cox regression analyses were conducted to ascertain prognostic factors and prognostic nomograms were developed utilizing LASSO logistic regression analysis. We used the calibration curve, and area under the curve to validate the nomograms. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the model and its clinical applicability.ResultsThe findings demonstrated that Grade, M stages, Surgery, and Chemotherapy emerged as autonomous prognostic factors for the survival of individuals with dCCA. The developed nomograms exhibited satisfactory accuracy in forecasting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probabilities. Furthermore, the calibration curves indicated a strong concordance between the anticipated and observed outcomes. The AUC of the nomogram for 1-year, 3-year, 5 year overall survival (OS) predication were 0.809 (95%CI 78.5-83.3), 0.79 (95%CI 75.8-82.2) and 0.761 ((95%CI 72.3-80.0) in the training cohort, 0.79 (95%CI 75.9-82.0), 0.73 (95%CI 68.5-77.5), and 0.732(95%CI 68.0-78.3) in internal test cohort, 0.862 (95%CI 81.7-90.7),0.83 (95%CI 76.4-89.6),and 0.819(95%CI 74.6-89.2) in external test cohort.ConclusionThe nomograms that have been suggested demonstrate strong predictive capability. These tools can assist medical professionals in assessing the prognosis of patients with dCCA and in devising more accurate treatment strategies for them.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1478836/fullnomogramdistal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA)survivalSEERpredict model |
| spellingShingle | Jiangfeng Hu Yuping Shi Lihua Jin Suhong Yi Jinsuo Chen Dadong Wan Weixin Ye Jingnan Chen Yajing Zhang Yang Jiang Bensong Duan Yuwei Dong Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma Frontiers in Oncology nomogram distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) survival SEER predict model |
| title | Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| title_full | Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| title_fullStr | Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| title_short | Predicting survival rates: the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| title_sort | predicting survival rates the power of prognostic nomograms in distal cholangiocarcinoma |
| topic | nomogram distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) survival SEER predict model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1478836/full |
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