Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China
ABSTRACT Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low‐carbon development. Most studies model fut...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70780 |
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| author | Jing Liu Kun Yang Shaohua Zhang Wenxia Zeng Xiaofang Yang Yan Rao Yan Ma Changyou Bi |
| author_facet | Jing Liu Kun Yang Shaohua Zhang Wenxia Zeng Xiaofang Yang Yan Rao Yan Ma Changyou Bi |
| author_sort | Jing Liu |
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| description | ABSTRACT Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low‐carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading to overly subjective simulations. We integrated the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset to simulate future LULC in Yunnan under different SSP‐RCP scenarios of climate and economic development. Within the new PLUS‐InVEST‐LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed LULC alterations and their effects on CS from 1980 to 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had the highest CS, whereas built‐up land and water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher CS, while the east has lower. From 1980 to 2020, CS continuously decreased by 29.55 Tg. In the wake of population increase and economic advancement, the area of built‐up land expanded by 2.75 times. Built‐up land encroaches on other land categories and is a key cause of the reduction in CS. (2) From 2020 to 2040, mainly due to an increase in forestland, CS rose to 3934.65 Tg under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, whereas under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario, primarily due to a reduction in forestland and grassland areas, CS declined to 3800.86 Tg. (3) Forestland is the primary contributor to CS, whereas the ongoing enlargement of built‐up land is causing a sustained decline in CS. Scenario simulations indicate that future LULC changes under different scenarios will have a significant impact on CS in Yunnan. Under a green sustainable development pathway, Yunnan can exhibit significant carbon sink potential. Overall, this research offers a scientific reference for optimizing land management and sustainable development in Yunnan, aiding China's “double carbon” goals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-73c9a55783c14a939357c90f89a0c80a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-73c9a55783c14a939357c90f89a0c80a2025-01-29T05:08:41ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-01-01151n/an/a10.1002/ece3.70780Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, ChinaJing Liu0Kun Yang1Shaohua Zhang2Wenxia Zeng3Xiaofang Yang4Yan Rao5Yan Ma6Changyou Bi7Faculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaFaculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming ChinaABSTRACT Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low‐carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading to overly subjective simulations. We integrated the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset to simulate future LULC in Yunnan under different SSP‐RCP scenarios of climate and economic development. Within the new PLUS‐InVEST‐LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed LULC alterations and their effects on CS from 1980 to 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had the highest CS, whereas built‐up land and water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher CS, while the east has lower. From 1980 to 2020, CS continuously decreased by 29.55 Tg. In the wake of population increase and economic advancement, the area of built‐up land expanded by 2.75 times. Built‐up land encroaches on other land categories and is a key cause of the reduction in CS. (2) From 2020 to 2040, mainly due to an increase in forestland, CS rose to 3934.65 Tg under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, whereas under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario, primarily due to a reduction in forestland and grassland areas, CS declined to 3800.86 Tg. (3) Forestland is the primary contributor to CS, whereas the ongoing enlargement of built‐up land is causing a sustained decline in CS. Scenario simulations indicate that future LULC changes under different scenarios will have a significant impact on CS in Yunnan. Under a green sustainable development pathway, Yunnan can exhibit significant carbon sink potential. Overall, this research offers a scientific reference for optimizing land management and sustainable development in Yunnan, aiding China's “double carbon” goals.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70780Carbon storageInVESTLULCPLUSSSP‐RCP |
| spellingShingle | Jing Liu Kun Yang Shaohua Zhang Wenxia Zeng Xiaofang Yang Yan Rao Yan Ma Changyou Bi Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China Ecology and Evolution Carbon storage InVEST LULC PLUS SSP‐RCP |
| title | Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full | Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_fullStr | Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_short | Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_sort | carbon storage response to land use land cover changes and ssp rcp scenarios simulation a case study in yunnan province china |
| topic | Carbon storage InVEST LULC PLUS SSP‐RCP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70780 |
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