Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States
Abstract We modeled the impact of initiating one-dose influenza vaccination at 3 months vs 6 months after declaration of a pandemic over a 1-year timeframe in the US population. Three vaccine effectiveness (VE) and two pandemic severity levels were considered, using an epidemic curve based on typica...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | npj Vaccines |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01081-5 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850208185252577280 |
|---|---|
| author | Van Hung Nguyen Pascal Crépey B. Adam Williams Verna L. Welch Jean Marie Pivette Charles H. Jones Jane M. True |
| author_facet | Van Hung Nguyen Pascal Crépey B. Adam Williams Verna L. Welch Jean Marie Pivette Charles H. Jones Jane M. True |
| author_sort | Van Hung Nguyen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We modeled the impact of initiating one-dose influenza vaccination at 3 months vs 6 months after declaration of a pandemic over a 1-year timeframe in the US population. Three vaccine effectiveness (VE) and two pandemic severity levels were considered, using an epidemic curve based on typical seasonal influenza epidemics. Vaccination from 3 months with a high, moderate, or low effectiveness vaccine would prevent ~95%, 84%, or 38% deaths post-vaccination, respectively, compared with 21%, 18%, and 8%, respectively following vaccination at 6 months, irrespective of pandemic severity. While the pandemic curve would not be flattened from vaccination from 6 months, a moderate/high effectiveness vaccine could flatten the curve if administered from 3 months. Overall, speed of initiating a vaccination campaign is more important than VE in reducing the health impacts of an influenza pandemic. Preparedness strategies may be able to minimize future pandemic impacts by prioritizing rapid vaccine roll-out. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-722d2fb1d5984f15b8c5e5f2a93bf65a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2059-0105 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj-art-722d2fb1d5984f15b8c5e5f2a93bf65a2025-08-20T02:10:17ZengNature Portfolionpj Vaccines2059-01052025-03-011011910.1038/s41541-025-01081-5Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United StatesVan Hung Nguyen0Pascal Crépey1B. Adam Williams2Verna L. Welch3Jean Marie Pivette4Charles H. Jones5Jane M. True6VHN Consulting IncEHESP, University of Rennes, CNRS, IEP Rennes, Arènes—UMR 6051, RSMS—Inserm U 1309PfizerPfizerVHN Consulting IncPfizerPfizerAbstract We modeled the impact of initiating one-dose influenza vaccination at 3 months vs 6 months after declaration of a pandemic over a 1-year timeframe in the US population. Three vaccine effectiveness (VE) and two pandemic severity levels were considered, using an epidemic curve based on typical seasonal influenza epidemics. Vaccination from 3 months with a high, moderate, or low effectiveness vaccine would prevent ~95%, 84%, or 38% deaths post-vaccination, respectively, compared with 21%, 18%, and 8%, respectively following vaccination at 6 months, irrespective of pandemic severity. While the pandemic curve would not be flattened from vaccination from 6 months, a moderate/high effectiveness vaccine could flatten the curve if administered from 3 months. Overall, speed of initiating a vaccination campaign is more important than VE in reducing the health impacts of an influenza pandemic. Preparedness strategies may be able to minimize future pandemic impacts by prioritizing rapid vaccine roll-out.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01081-5 |
| spellingShingle | Van Hung Nguyen Pascal Crépey B. Adam Williams Verna L. Welch Jean Marie Pivette Charles H. Jones Jane M. True Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States npj Vaccines |
| title | Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States |
| title_full | Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States |
| title_short | Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States |
| title_sort | modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the united states |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01081-5 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vanhungnguyen modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT pascalcrepey modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT badamwilliams modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT vernalwelch modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT jeanmariepivette modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT charleshjones modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates AT janemtrue modelingtheimpactofearlyvaccinationinaninfluenzapandemicintheunitedstates |