Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels
Objectives: To map subnational and local prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) across Africa. Methods: We assembled a geolocated dataset from 173 sources across 31 African countries, comprising drug susceptibility test results and covariate data from publicly available databases. We used...
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000013 |
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| author | Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew Archie C.A. Clements Fasil Wagnew Beth Gilmour Kefyalew Addis Alene |
| author_facet | Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew Archie C.A. Clements Fasil Wagnew Beth Gilmour Kefyalew Addis Alene |
| author_sort | Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: To map subnational and local prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) across Africa. Methods: We assembled a geolocated dataset from 173 sources across 31 African countries, comprising drug susceptibility test results and covariate data from publicly available databases. We used Bayesian model-based geostatistical framework with multivariate Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate DR-TB prevalence at lower administrative levels. Results: We estimated 148,239 DR-TB cases (95% uncertainty interval: 17,499-313,683) in Africa, showing significant variation by country. Eswatini and South Africa had highest case numbers, while Algeria and Egypt had the lowest. The highest DR-TB prevalence was estimated in Eswatini (53.26; 95% uncertainty interval 13.13-66.12), Morocco, Tunisia, and South Africa, while the lowest prevalence was found in Gabon, the Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, and Mali. Marked subnational variation in DR-TB prevalence was noted, where 91 subnational areas across 12 countries had prevalence rates higher than their respective national averages. Factors such as mean temperature (β = 2.01; 95% CrI: 1.21, 3.42), population density (β = 0.41; 95% CrI: 0.19, 0.95), and fine particulate matter (β = 0.66; 95% CrI: 0.20, 0.80) were positively associated with DR-TB prevalence. Conclusion: The study highlights substantial national and subnational variability in DR-TB prevalence across Africa, aiding policymakers in designing localized TB control interventions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-71c3502c10cf46f8b796bf3618a56f73 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-71c3502c10cf46f8b796bf3618a56f732025-01-26T05:03:32ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-04-01153107777Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levelsAlemneh Mekuriaw Liyew0Archie C.A. Clements1Fasil Wagnew2Beth Gilmour3Kefyalew Addis Alene4Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Geospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia; Corresponding author: Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew, 5-7 Kathleen Avenue, Maylands, WA 6051.Geospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia; Research and Enterprise, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UKPopulation Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH), College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, AustraliaSchool of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Geospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, AustraliaSchool of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Geospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, AustraliaObjectives: To map subnational and local prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) across Africa. Methods: We assembled a geolocated dataset from 173 sources across 31 African countries, comprising drug susceptibility test results and covariate data from publicly available databases. We used Bayesian model-based geostatistical framework with multivariate Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate DR-TB prevalence at lower administrative levels. Results: We estimated 148,239 DR-TB cases (95% uncertainty interval: 17,499-313,683) in Africa, showing significant variation by country. Eswatini and South Africa had highest case numbers, while Algeria and Egypt had the lowest. The highest DR-TB prevalence was estimated in Eswatini (53.26; 95% uncertainty interval 13.13-66.12), Morocco, Tunisia, and South Africa, while the lowest prevalence was found in Gabon, the Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, and Mali. Marked subnational variation in DR-TB prevalence was noted, where 91 subnational areas across 12 countries had prevalence rates higher than their respective national averages. Factors such as mean temperature (β = 2.01; 95% CrI: 1.21, 3.42), population density (β = 0.41; 95% CrI: 0.19, 0.95), and fine particulate matter (β = 0.66; 95% CrI: 0.20, 0.80) were positively associated with DR-TB prevalence. Conclusion: The study highlights substantial national and subnational variability in DR-TB prevalence across Africa, aiding policymakers in designing localized TB control interventions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000013Drug-resistant tuberculosisGeospatial analysisPrevalenceSpatial variation |
| spellingShingle | Alemneh Mekuriaw Liyew Archie C.A. Clements Fasil Wagnew Beth Gilmour Kefyalew Addis Alene Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels International Journal of Infectious Diseases Drug-resistant tuberculosis Geospatial analysis Prevalence Spatial variation |
| title | Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels |
| title_full | Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels |
| title_fullStr | Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels |
| title_short | Geospatial mapping of drug-resistant tuberculosis prevalence in Africa at national and sub-national levels |
| title_sort | geospatial mapping of drug resistant tuberculosis prevalence in africa at national and sub national levels |
| topic | Drug-resistant tuberculosis Geospatial analysis Prevalence Spatial variation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000013 |
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