Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100
Study region: Laohugou Glacier No. 12 in the Qilian Mountains, northeast Tibetan Plateau. Study focus: Alpine glacier meltwater from the Qilian Mountains (QMs), northeast Tibetan Plateau, is the main source of water for the surrounding arid zones. Accurately reconstructing long-term mountain glacier...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004385 |
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| author | Mengyuan Liu Baojuan Huai Lei Wang Yuzhe Wang Hongmin An Jizu Chen Wentao Du Xiang Qin Weijun Sun |
| author_facet | Mengyuan Liu Baojuan Huai Lei Wang Yuzhe Wang Hongmin An Jizu Chen Wentao Du Xiang Qin Weijun Sun |
| author_sort | Mengyuan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Laohugou Glacier No. 12 in the Qilian Mountains, northeast Tibetan Plateau. Study focus: Alpine glacier meltwater from the Qilian Mountains (QMs), northeast Tibetan Plateau, is the main source of water for the surrounding arid zones. Accurately reconstructing long-term mountain glacier mass balance (MB) and projecting glacier changes under climate warming are pivotal in cryospheric scientific research. In this study, Laohugou Glacier No. 12 (LHG12), in the western QMs, was selected as a study area. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, the degree-day and glacier retreat models were used to predict the glacier changes under three scenarios for 2020–2100. New hydrological insights for the region: From 2020–2100, the annual mass loss of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 which perform best increased compared to the measured data in the historical period (2010–2014) (i.e., annual MB of −0.26 m w.e) by a factor of 1.04 and 1.73 under SSP1–2.6, 4.62 and 4.88 under SSP3–7.0, and 6.23 and 7.15 times under SSP5–8.5. By 2100, the ice volume and area of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 reduced to 0.03×109 (1.6 %) and 0.01×109 (0.4 %) m3, 1.87 and 0.75 km2 under SSP5–8.5, respectively. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-711f0ce6448f4d9ba92bf2130de7a6af |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-711f0ce6448f4d9ba92bf2130de7a6af2025-01-22T05:41:58ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102089Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100Mengyuan Liu0Baojuan Huai1Lei Wang2Yuzhe Wang3Hongmin An4Jizu Chen5Wentao Du6Xiang Qin7Weijun Sun8College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China; Corresponding authors.College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, ChinaQilian Shan Station of Glaciology and Eco-environment, Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaQilian Shan Station of Glaciology and Eco-environment, Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaQilian Shan Station of Glaciology and Eco-environment, Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China; Corresponding authors.Study region: Laohugou Glacier No. 12 in the Qilian Mountains, northeast Tibetan Plateau. Study focus: Alpine glacier meltwater from the Qilian Mountains (QMs), northeast Tibetan Plateau, is the main source of water for the surrounding arid zones. Accurately reconstructing long-term mountain glacier mass balance (MB) and projecting glacier changes under climate warming are pivotal in cryospheric scientific research. In this study, Laohugou Glacier No. 12 (LHG12), in the western QMs, was selected as a study area. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, the degree-day and glacier retreat models were used to predict the glacier changes under three scenarios for 2020–2100. New hydrological insights for the region: From 2020–2100, the annual mass loss of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 which perform best increased compared to the measured data in the historical period (2010–2014) (i.e., annual MB of −0.26 m w.e) by a factor of 1.04 and 1.73 under SSP1–2.6, 4.62 and 4.88 under SSP3–7.0, and 6.23 and 7.15 times under SSP5–8.5. By 2100, the ice volume and area of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 reduced to 0.03×109 (1.6 %) and 0.01×109 (0.4 %) m3, 1.87 and 0.75 km2 under SSP5–8.5, respectively.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004385Climate changeMass balanceCMIP6Laohugou Glacier No.12Glacier model |
| spellingShingle | Mengyuan Liu Baojuan Huai Lei Wang Yuzhe Wang Hongmin An Jizu Chen Wentao Du Xiang Qin Weijun Sun Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change Mass balance CMIP6 Laohugou Glacier No.12 Glacier model |
| title | Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 |
| title_full | Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 |
| title_short | Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100 |
| title_sort | projection of glacier changes over the laohugou glacier no 12 northeast tibetan plateau china from 2020 to 2100 |
| topic | Climate change Mass balance CMIP6 Laohugou Glacier No.12 Glacier model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004385 |
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