Revisiting the link between COVID-19 incidence and infection fatality rate during the first pandemic wave

Revisiting the link between COVID-19 incidence and infection fatality rate during the first pandemic wave

Abstract Several studies found an association between COVID-19 incidence, cumulated over the first pandemic wave, and the risk of death for infected individuals. They attributed this association to hospital overload. We studied this association across the French departments using 82,467 serological...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Benjamin Glemain, Charles Assaad, Walid Ghosn, Paul Moulaire, Xavier de Lamballerie, Marie Zins, Gianluca Severi, Mathilde Touvier, Jean-François Deleuze, SAPRIS-SERO study group, Nathanaël Lapidus, Fabrice Carrat, Pierre-Yves Ancel, Marie-Aline Charles, Sofiane Kab, Adeline Renuy, Stephane Le-Got, Celine Ribet, Mireille Pellicer, Emmanuel Wiernik, Marcel Goldberg, Fanny Artaud, Pascale Gerbouin-Rérolle, Mélody Enguix, Camille Laplanche, Roselyn Gomes-Rima, Lyan Hoang, Emmanuelle Correia, Alpha Amadou Barry, Nadège Senina, Julien Allegre, Fabien Szabo de Edelenyi, Nathalie Druesne-Pecollo, Younes Esseddik, Serge Hercberg, Mélanie Deschasaux, Valérie Benhammou, Anass Ritmi, Laetitia Marchand, Cecile Zaros, Elodie Lordmi, Adriana Candea, Sophie de Visme, Thierry Simeon, Xavier Thierry, Bertrand Geay, Marie-Noelle Dufourg, Karen Milcent, Delphine Rahib, Nathalie Lydie, Clovis Lusivika-Nzinga, Gregory Pannetier, Nathanael Lapidus, Isabelle Goderel, Céline Dorival, Jérôme Nicol, Olivier Robineau, Cindy Lai, Liza Belhadji, Hélène Esperou, Sandrine Couffin-Cadiergues, Jean-Marie Gagliolo, Hélène Blanché, Jean-Marc Sébaoun, Jean-Christophe Beaudoin, Laetitia Gressin, Valérie Morel, Ouissam Ouili, Laetitia Ninove, Stéphane Priet, Paola Mariela Saba Villarroel, Toscane Fourié, Souand Mohamed Ali, Abdenour Amroun, Morgan Seston, Nazli Ayhan, Boris Pastorino
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
COVID-19
Hospital overload
Bayesian statistics
Hierarchical modeling
Spatial modeling
Causal graph
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99078-6
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Abstract Several studies found an association between COVID-19 incidence, cumulated over the first pandemic wave, and the risk of death for infected individuals. They attributed this association to hospital overload. We studied this association across the French departments using 82,467 serological samples and a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatial smoothing. In high-incidence areas, we hypothesized that hospital overload would increase infection fatality rate (IFR) without increasing infection hospitalization rate (IHR). The analyses were adjusted for intensive care beds per capita, age of the population, and diabetes prevalence (as a surrogate for obesity). We found that increasing departmental incidence from 3 to 9% rose IFR from 0.42 to 1.14% (difference 0.72%, 95% CI 0.49–1.01%), and IHR from 1.66 to 3.61% (difference 1.94%, 95% CI 1.18–2.80%). An increase in incidence from 6 to 12% in people under 60 was associated with an increased proportion of people over 60 among those infected, from 11.6 to 17.4% (difference 5.8%, 95% CI 2.9–8.8%). Higher incidence increased the risk of death for infected individuals and their risk of hospitalization by the same magnitude. These findings could be explained by a higher age among infected individuals in high-incidence areas, rather by than hospital overload.
ISSN:2045-2322

Similar Items