Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change
Abstract The risk of compound coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area is increasing due to climate change yet remains relatively underexplored. Using a novel hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling approach, this study investigates the impacts of climate change induced sea-level rise and hig...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00057-0 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832594975560302592 |
|---|---|
| author | Zhenqiang Wang Meredith Leung Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay Sai Veena Sunkara Scott Steinschneider Jonathan Herman Marriah Abellera John Kucharski Peter Ruggiero |
| author_facet | Zhenqiang Wang Meredith Leung Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay Sai Veena Sunkara Scott Steinschneider Jonathan Herman Marriah Abellera John Kucharski Peter Ruggiero |
| author_sort | Zhenqiang Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The risk of compound coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area is increasing due to climate change yet remains relatively underexplored. Using a novel hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling approach, this study investigates the impacts of climate change induced sea-level rise and higher river discharge on the magnitude and frequency of flooding events as well as the relative importance of various forcing drivers to compound flooding within the Bay. Results reveal that rare occurrences of flooding under the present-day climate are projected to occur once every few hundred years under climate change with relatively low sea-level rise (0.5 m) but would become annual events under climate change with high sea-level rise (1.0 to 1.5 m). Results also show that extreme water levels that are presently dominated by tides will be dominated by sea-level rise in most locations of the Bay in the future. The dominance of river discharge to the non-tidal and non-sea-level rise driven water level signal in the North Bay is expected to extend ~15 km further seaward under extreme climate change. These findings are critical for informing climate adaptation and coastal resilience planning in San Francisco Bay. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6aae6621b5cc48aa860dca849949d359 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-6aae6621b5cc48aa860dca849949d3592025-01-19T12:10:56ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-01-012111210.1038/s44304-024-00057-0Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate changeZhenqiang Wang0Meredith Leung1Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay2Sai Veena Sunkara3Scott Steinschneider4Jonathan Herman5Marriah Abellera6John Kucharski7Peter Ruggiero8College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State UniversityCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State UniversityDepartment of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of CaliforniaU.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Water Resources CenterU.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental LaboratoryCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State UniversityAbstract The risk of compound coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area is increasing due to climate change yet remains relatively underexplored. Using a novel hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling approach, this study investigates the impacts of climate change induced sea-level rise and higher river discharge on the magnitude and frequency of flooding events as well as the relative importance of various forcing drivers to compound flooding within the Bay. Results reveal that rare occurrences of flooding under the present-day climate are projected to occur once every few hundred years under climate change with relatively low sea-level rise (0.5 m) but would become annual events under climate change with high sea-level rise (1.0 to 1.5 m). Results also show that extreme water levels that are presently dominated by tides will be dominated by sea-level rise in most locations of the Bay in the future. The dominance of river discharge to the non-tidal and non-sea-level rise driven water level signal in the North Bay is expected to extend ~15 km further seaward under extreme climate change. These findings are critical for informing climate adaptation and coastal resilience planning in San Francisco Bay.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00057-0 |
| spellingShingle | Zhenqiang Wang Meredith Leung Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay Sai Veena Sunkara Scott Steinschneider Jonathan Herman Marriah Abellera John Kucharski Peter Ruggiero Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change npj Natural Hazards |
| title | Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change |
| title_full | Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change |
| title_short | Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change |
| title_sort | compound coastal flooding in san francisco bay under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00057-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhenqiangwang compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT meredithleung compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT sudarshanamukhopadhyay compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT saiveenasunkara compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT scottsteinschneider compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT jonathanherman compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT marriahabellera compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT johnkucharski compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange AT peterruggiero compoundcoastalfloodinginsanfranciscobayunderclimatechange |