Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China
Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less th...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2017-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/4650284 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832552778960994304 |
|---|---|
| author | Linlin Fan Hongrui Wang Cheng Wang Wenli Lai Yong Zhao |
| author_facet | Linlin Fan Hongrui Wang Cheng Wang Wenli Lai Yong Zhao |
| author_sort | Linlin Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R≤10 mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Thus, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6a92d48d777f45b28706277a4bd662bd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-6a92d48d777f45b28706277a4bd662bd2025-02-03T05:57:47ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172017-01-01201710.1155/2017/46502844650284Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, ChinaLinlin Fan0Hongrui Wang1Cheng Wang2Wenli Lai3Yong Zhao4College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, ChinaCollege of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, ChinaEnvironmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USACollege of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaDrought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R≤10 mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Thus, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/4650284 |
| spellingShingle | Linlin Fan Hongrui Wang Cheng Wang Wenli Lai Yong Zhao Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China |
| title_full | Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China |
| title_fullStr | Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China |
| title_short | Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China |
| title_sort | exploration of use of copulas in analysing the relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in beijing china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/4650284 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT linlinfan explorationofuseofcopulasinanalysingtherelationshipbetweenprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtinbeijingchina AT hongruiwang explorationofuseofcopulasinanalysingtherelationshipbetweenprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtinbeijingchina AT chengwang explorationofuseofcopulasinanalysingtherelationshipbetweenprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtinbeijingchina AT wenlilai explorationofuseofcopulasinanalysingtherelationshipbetweenprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtinbeijingchina AT yongzhao explorationofuseofcopulasinanalysingtherelationshipbetweenprecipitationandmeteorologicaldroughtinbeijingchina |