Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins
Study region: Yuecheng Reservoir area, Haihe River Basin, China. Study focus: After the construction and water storage of the reservoir, the conditions for runoff generation and routing method near the dam site have changed significantly. Certain complex, scale-related issues remain insufficiently u...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004531 |
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| author | Yihua Sheng Zhijia Li Zhiyu Liu Yalei Han Jie Wang Junfu Gong Ning Xu |
| author_facet | Yihua Sheng Zhijia Li Zhiyu Liu Yalei Han Jie Wang Junfu Gong Ning Xu |
| author_sort | Yihua Sheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Yuecheng Reservoir area, Haihe River Basin, China. Study focus: After the construction and water storage of the reservoir, the conditions for runoff generation and routing method near the dam site have changed significantly. Certain complex, scale-related issues remain insufficiently understood, limiting the application of physically based distributed hydrological models in this area. We explore the application of physically based, distributed hydrological models, with particular emphasis on the scale effects of the TOPKAPI model in rainfall-runoff forecasting. A three-step investigative framework based on geomorphological theories of hydrological response is proposed. First, fractal and geomorphological theories are applied to assess scale dependency in distributed data inputs. Then, intensive multi-scale modeling is conducted across resolutions from 2000 m to 100 m to understand how scale influences model performance. Lastly, a scale extrapolation method is proposed and validated for broader application. New hydrological insights: The results reveal a strong correlation between geomorphological features and scale, with variations in grid cell size affecting the statistical characteristics of underlying surface data. Multi-scale modeling confirms that scale impacts the performance of hydrological models, with the proposed scale extrapolation method proving highly adaptable across scales. This approach enables the transfer of model parameters from gauged to ungauged areas, providing a reliable foundation for flood forecasting in ungauged basins and supporting improved flood risk management for reservoir catchments in data-scarce regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-69882622a6754d93954ed98e8e64a4f1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-69882622a6754d93954ed98e8e64a4f12025-01-22T05:42:02ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102104Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basinsYihua Sheng0Zhijia Li1Zhiyu Liu2Yalei Han3Jie Wang4Junfu Gong5Ning Xu6College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, PR China; Corresponding authors.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, PR China; Corresponding authors.Department of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources of China, Beijing 100053, PR ChinaCollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, PR ChinaWater Management Service Center of Zhuzhen Town, Nanjing 210044, PR ChinaCollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, PR China; College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, PR ChinaZhangweinan Canal Management Bureau of Haihe Water Conservancy Commission, Dezhou 253041, PR ChinaStudy region: Yuecheng Reservoir area, Haihe River Basin, China. Study focus: After the construction and water storage of the reservoir, the conditions for runoff generation and routing method near the dam site have changed significantly. Certain complex, scale-related issues remain insufficiently understood, limiting the application of physically based distributed hydrological models in this area. We explore the application of physically based, distributed hydrological models, with particular emphasis on the scale effects of the TOPKAPI model in rainfall-runoff forecasting. A three-step investigative framework based on geomorphological theories of hydrological response is proposed. First, fractal and geomorphological theories are applied to assess scale dependency in distributed data inputs. Then, intensive multi-scale modeling is conducted across resolutions from 2000 m to 100 m to understand how scale influences model performance. Lastly, a scale extrapolation method is proposed and validated for broader application. New hydrological insights: The results reveal a strong correlation between geomorphological features and scale, with variations in grid cell size affecting the statistical characteristics of underlying surface data. Multi-scale modeling confirms that scale impacts the performance of hydrological models, with the proposed scale extrapolation method proving highly adaptable across scales. This approach enables the transfer of model parameters from gauged to ungauged areas, providing a reliable foundation for flood forecasting in ungauged basins and supporting improved flood risk management for reservoir catchments in data-scarce regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004531Inflow flood forecastingUngauged basinsTOPKAPI modelFractal theoryGeomorphological theoryScale effects and extrapolation |
| spellingShingle | Yihua Sheng Zhijia Li Zhiyu Liu Yalei Han Jie Wang Junfu Gong Ning Xu Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Inflow flood forecasting Ungauged basins TOPKAPI model Fractal theory Geomorphological theory Scale effects and extrapolation |
| title | Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| title_full | Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| title_fullStr | Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| title_short | Scale effects of physically based TOPKAPI model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| title_sort | scale effects of physically based topkapi model in reservoir inflow flood forecasting for ungauged basins |
| topic | Inflow flood forecasting Ungauged basins TOPKAPI model Fractal theory Geomorphological theory Scale effects and extrapolation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004531 |
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