Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis
Background. This study aims to investigate the risk factors of pleural effusion (PE) secondary to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and to build a nomogram model. Methods. The clinical parameters of SAP patients admitted to the emergency department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical Co...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Emergency Medicine International |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4199209 |
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| author | Bing-Mei Zhou Zhao-Lei Qiu Kai-Xuan Niu Yin-E. Wang Fu-Chen Jie |
| author_facet | Bing-Mei Zhou Zhao-Lei Qiu Kai-Xuan Niu Yin-E. Wang Fu-Chen Jie |
| author_sort | Bing-Mei Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. This study aims to investigate the risk factors of pleural effusion (PE) secondary to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and to build a nomogram model. Methods. The clinical parameters of SAP patients admitted to the emergency department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College from January 2019 to August 2021 were retrospectively collected. The independence risk factors of PE secondary to SAP were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram risk prediction model was established and validated through the area under the ROC curve. Result. Two hundred twenty-two SAP patients were included for analysis, of which 65 patients experienced secondary PE. The incidence of PE secondary to SAP was 29.28% (65/222). Logistic regression analysis showed that serum albumin (ALB) (OR = 0.830, 95% CI: 0.736∼0.936), fibrinogen (FIB) (OR = 4.573, 95% CI: 1.795∼11.648), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 1.046, 95% CI: 1.009∼1.083), acute physiology, chronic health score system (APACHE-II) score (OR = 1.484, 95% CI: 1.106∼1.990), and sequential organ failure score (SOFA) (OR = 43.038, 95% CI: 2.030∼4.548) were independent risk factors for PE secondary to SAP (P<0.05) and entered into the nomogram. The nomogram showed robust discrimination with an index of concordance of 0.755 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.779∼0.894). Conclusion. We developed a nomogram model for PE secondary to SAP with ALB, FIB, CRP, APACHE-II scores, and SOFA scores. The nomogram model showed good discrimination and consistency, and it can better predict the risk of PE secondary to SAP. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-66fe8164d7fd4c56bab504cc33d315e3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2090-2859 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emergency Medicine International |
| spelling | doaj-art-66fe8164d7fd4c56bab504cc33d315e32025-02-03T01:09:55ZengWileyEmergency Medicine International2090-28592022-01-01202210.1155/2022/4199209Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute PancreatitisBing-Mei Zhou0Zhao-Lei Qiu1Kai-Xuan Niu2Yin-E. Wang3Fu-Chen Jie4Department of EmergencyDepartment of EmergencyDepartment of EmergencyDepartment of EmergencyDepartment of EmergencyBackground. This study aims to investigate the risk factors of pleural effusion (PE) secondary to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and to build a nomogram model. Methods. The clinical parameters of SAP patients admitted to the emergency department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College from January 2019 to August 2021 were retrospectively collected. The independence risk factors of PE secondary to SAP were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram risk prediction model was established and validated through the area under the ROC curve. Result. Two hundred twenty-two SAP patients were included for analysis, of which 65 patients experienced secondary PE. The incidence of PE secondary to SAP was 29.28% (65/222). Logistic regression analysis showed that serum albumin (ALB) (OR = 0.830, 95% CI: 0.736∼0.936), fibrinogen (FIB) (OR = 4.573, 95% CI: 1.795∼11.648), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 1.046, 95% CI: 1.009∼1.083), acute physiology, chronic health score system (APACHE-II) score (OR = 1.484, 95% CI: 1.106∼1.990), and sequential organ failure score (SOFA) (OR = 43.038, 95% CI: 2.030∼4.548) were independent risk factors for PE secondary to SAP (P<0.05) and entered into the nomogram. The nomogram showed robust discrimination with an index of concordance of 0.755 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.779∼0.894). Conclusion. We developed a nomogram model for PE secondary to SAP with ALB, FIB, CRP, APACHE-II scores, and SOFA scores. The nomogram model showed good discrimination and consistency, and it can better predict the risk of PE secondary to SAP.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4199209 |
| spellingShingle | Bing-Mei Zhou Zhao-Lei Qiu Kai-Xuan Niu Yin-E. Wang Fu-Chen Jie Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis Emergency Medicine International |
| title | Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full | Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_fullStr | Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_short | Construction of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Pleural Effusion Secondary to Severe Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_sort | construction of a nomogram model for predicting pleural effusion secondary to severe acute pancreatitis |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4199209 |
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