Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models
Abstract Climate change and biological invasions of insect pests are interlinked global concerns that drive shifts in the distribution of invasive insects. The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata Saunders, is one of the most economically important Tephritidae species that attack several host plants a...
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CABI
2023-10-01
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| Series: | CABI Agriculture and Bioscience |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s43170-023-00187-x |
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| author | Farman Ullah Yuan Zhang Hina Gul Muhammad Hafeez Nicolas Desneux Yujia Qin Zhihong Li |
| author_facet | Farman Ullah Yuan Zhang Hina Gul Muhammad Hafeez Nicolas Desneux Yujia Qin Zhihong Li |
| author_sort | Farman Ullah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change and biological invasions of insect pests are interlinked global concerns that drive shifts in the distribution of invasive insects. The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata Saunders, is one of the most economically important Tephritidae species that attack several host plants and causes serious damage in Asia and Africa. Currently, B. zonata is absent from many countries and regions but has a risk of invasion. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on the global potential distribution of B. zonata. In this study, we used MaxEnt and CLIMEX models to estimate the risk area for B. zonata under near current and future climate conditions. The MaxEnt and CLIMEX results showed that the south of North and Central America was suitable for B. zonata. The European countries were slightly suitable for B. zonata. In Asia, the highly suitable regions of B. zonata included Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iran, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos. Moreover, China, Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan showed highly climate suitability for B. zonata. The climate suitability of B. zonata was increasingly high in the projection under climate change. The result of the two models showed that the climatic suitability for B. zonata will increase under climate change in China. Taken together, these predictive results support the quarantine of B. zonata for high-risk countries and provide in-depth information on how climatic changes may affect its possible geographic range. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6646e090a2814d1a8d457299cf85ee0c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4044 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | CABI |
| record_format | Article |
| series | CABI Agriculture and Bioscience |
| spelling | doaj-art-6646e090a2814d1a8d457299cf85ee0c2025-02-03T05:42:54ZengCABICABI Agriculture and Bioscience2662-40442023-10-014111010.1186/s43170-023-00187-xEstimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche modelsFarman Ullah0Yuan Zhang1Hina Gul2Muhammad Hafeez3Nicolas Desneux4Yujia Qin5Zhihong Li6Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural UniversityDepartment of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural UniversityMARA Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Green Management, Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural UniversityState Key Laboratory for Managing Biotic and Chemical Threats to the Quality and Safety of Agro-products, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural SciencesUniversité Côte d’Azur, INRAE, CNRS, UMR ISADepartment of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural UniversityDepartment of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural UniversityAbstract Climate change and biological invasions of insect pests are interlinked global concerns that drive shifts in the distribution of invasive insects. The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata Saunders, is one of the most economically important Tephritidae species that attack several host plants and causes serious damage in Asia and Africa. Currently, B. zonata is absent from many countries and regions but has a risk of invasion. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on the global potential distribution of B. zonata. In this study, we used MaxEnt and CLIMEX models to estimate the risk area for B. zonata under near current and future climate conditions. The MaxEnt and CLIMEX results showed that the south of North and Central America was suitable for B. zonata. The European countries were slightly suitable for B. zonata. In Asia, the highly suitable regions of B. zonata included Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iran, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos. Moreover, China, Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan showed highly climate suitability for B. zonata. The climate suitability of B. zonata was increasingly high in the projection under climate change. The result of the two models showed that the climatic suitability for B. zonata will increase under climate change in China. Taken together, these predictive results support the quarantine of B. zonata for high-risk countries and provide in-depth information on how climatic changes may affect its possible geographic range.https://doi.org/10.1186/s43170-023-00187-xTephritidaeEcological managementClimatic changeInvasive pestPotential geographical distribution |
| spellingShingle | Farman Ullah Yuan Zhang Hina Gul Muhammad Hafeez Nicolas Desneux Yujia Qin Zhihong Li Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models CABI Agriculture and Bioscience Tephritidae Ecological management Climatic change Invasive pest Potential geographical distribution |
| title | Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| title_full | Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| title_short | Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| title_sort | estimation of the potential geographical distribution of invasive peach fruit fly under climate change by integrated ecological niche models |
| topic | Tephritidae Ecological management Climatic change Invasive pest Potential geographical distribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s43170-023-00187-x |
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